The era of peak globalisation is over. An economic system that relied on worldwide production and long supply chains is morphing into one that will be less interconnected. A way of life driven by unceasing mobility is shuddering to a stop. Our lives are going to be more physically constrained and more virtual than they were. A more fragmented world is coming into being that in some ways may be more resilient. ...=======
The task ahead is to build economies and societies that are more durable, and more humanly habitable, than those that were exposed to the anarchy of the global market.
[This] does not mean a shift to small-scale localism. Human numbers are too large for local self-sufficiency to be viable, and most of humankind is not willing to return to the small, closed communities of a more distant past. But the hyperglobalisation of the last few decades is not coming back either. The virus has exposed fatal weaknesses in the economic system that was patched up after the 2008 financial crisis. Liberal capitalism is bust.
With all its talk of freedom and choice, liberalism was in practice the experiment of dissolving traditional sources of social cohesion and political legitimacy and replacing them with the promise of rising material living standards. ...
The pandemic has abruptly accelerated geopolitical change.
In contrast, the advance of East Asia will surely continue. The most successful responses to the epidemic thus far have been in Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. It is hard to believe their cultural traditions, which focus on collective well-being more than personal autonomy, have not played a role in their success. They have also resisted the cult of the minimal state. It will not be surprising if they adjust to de-globalisation better than many Western countries.
Among others, quite a term, the era of "the minimal state."
As I said a few weeks ago, every think tanker in the world is writing similar piece. All worthless as you can't use them as TP.
ReplyDeleteI'm not shocked the New Statesman wants the death of the postwar order. Just not sure they are right.
As in 2008, a lot of people thought it was a dollar funding crisis when it turned into a bank solvency issue. I'd say the problem is more complex today as we're seeing a run on the global dollar. I could imagine the US being delinked from the dollar as basically the fed and treasury have lost control of it.
I still don't think much of this virus. Total deaths will be under a usual flu, with the caveat we don't know about India and Africa.
Google "Old man's friend". This is just a novel way for old people to die.
The minimal state is a good term, and I'd use it. Saw that in Sweden. Basicallly the social contract and trust.
You can also see that we've basically turned to the "precariot (spelling?) and said - hey, you handle this. Given the levels of panic building I'm not sure how much longer they want to do this.
The biggest change I see is the wholesale willing to copy China-- instead of copying the US. The future used to be here. Not anymore.
1. Agree with you that the world order won't shut down. But there will be significant changes, probably, in terms of supply chain issues with key goods, like medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, etc.
ReplyDelete2. And definitely that the US role is diminishing significantly.
... it's another data point. The chaos unleashed by the invasion of Iraq and the debacle there touched off significantly the decline in US position. Afterwards, the general Republican unwillingness to fund multilateral initiatives, etc. Then, all the various Trump things. And now the failure of the US response to coronavirus. Like the failure in Iraq, it leads to a significant diminishment in "Brand America." BA moves from "can do" to "total fuckups."
I could have said "can do" to "can't do".
ReplyDelete(WRT TP, I don't subscribe to NS so that doesn't help but I tend to buy "large amounts" when CVS has their Scott paper specials and I buy usually 4 12-roll packs at a time. That lasts for 5-6 mos. We're still good for at least 1.5 months.)
RE: TP. What is interesting (contra NS) is that you can see "international aid' or coordination is dead. Even in the EU it is dead.
ReplyDelete(Do you think California or Washington are sending doctors or ventilators to NY?)
The TP shortage was global. Started in China. Went to HK. Went to Europe. Came to the US. Now going elsewhere.
yes saw the article about commercial vs residential use that you posted. Good points.
But there was panic buying, and citizens in every country were going through the same panic. So while international cooperation by states is dying, you still have that massive interpersonal media that technology allows.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-25/3m-doubled-production-of-n95-face-masks-to-fight-coronavirus
on the US model, agree with everything you just wrote but flexibility and states as labs does make a huge difference.
RE: NS, think tanks and TP:
https://www.scmp.com/article/970657/not-letting-facts-ruin-good-story
States as labs. I'm on an elist by Michael Litkovsky (sp?), who does infrastructure stuff, financing, etc.
ReplyDeleteHe wrote a piece about being so impressed by governors like Cuomo and Newsom and how if there is a push on infrastructure, besides the importance of medical infrastructure, governors should take the lead.
I wrote a response to him saying, look at what Cuomo, Newsom, Baker, Hogan, Snider (Flint), Ford in Ontario etc. have done on that score and there is plenty of room for f*ing up.
2. wrt "inter-state" help. I think that you're right sort of. OTOH, since every place is affected simultaneously, I'm not sure this is the right kind of example.
Hurricanes and tornadoes are localized and usually other states will send resources, rescue teams, etc. (Like how the electric utility firms have mutual aid pacts.)
I guess there isn't much of a playbook for when there is a simultaneous problem.
Plus the whole issue of slack resources (lack thereof) and the issue of trained personnel to operate stuff.
Separately, note the issue with the USN Comfort in NYC isn't much different than the complaints when it was deployed to PR.
3. SCMP -- Hmm. Sometimes I mishear stuff and it leads to great insights.
I still think I heard Charles Landry say "world cities give, they don't just take." But Aaron Renn attributes this to me. But in any case, I based in on some of my readings of his work, and hearing him speak at least once (it may have been twice, but as you know, the big personages usually repeat the same speech).
Similarly, I went to a presentation by a graphic design professor at the 2007 Main St. conference. She was a terrible speaker, and I misheard her too. I thought she said cities should have a "graphic design element" in their comp plans, but she didn't say that. (Interestingly, the presentation was about how she and her students did facade work for Iowa MS programs, using the graphic design approach.)
FWIW, I think this is wishful thinking, speaking of think tanks:
ReplyDeletehttps://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/03/united-states-can-still-win-coronavirus-pandemic-power
He makes some good points.
1. The dollar is still the world reserve currency.
And then suggests the US can regain "influence"
1. if the US gets the pandemic under control so it can restart the economy and convince the world that the US still can respond in a crisis.
2. shifts from an "America First" approach to a more global-connected helpful approach.
But I don't think the US will shift necessarily.
FWIW, I don't agree with you about the virus.
It's more deadly than the flu, it's more contagious. People can be contagious without symptoms. People when sick are hospitalized for up to 5x longer. More need ICU services, which test hospital resources. (By comparison SARS wasn't as contagious and people only shed virus once they were clearly sick.)
And at least right now, the period of disease is more concentrated.
It might be though that the US doesn't experience it as badly as Italy and Spain and Iran (on a per capita basis).
Obviously, I hope we don't.
Well I don't want to argue with you on the flu comparison; in reality it is more of a common cold. We'll be arguing for 100 years on the actual death rate, and unlike a flu or common cold hits a certain segment (overweight old people) like a ton of bricks.
ReplyDeleteLeadership would be getting people to accept that triage is the only option. As in the case it Italy and France; basically nobody over 80 is going on a ventilator. Also since ICU is full all other patients (heart attack) don't get treated and die.
Fun exercise is to look here:
https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical
and compared it to the back dated ILI report:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
One thing is we can say is we defiantly found a a way to stop the flu this year. It cost of $10 trillion but the flu season is over.
Off topic so we don't fight (as I said not an argument we are going to resolve)
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/10/14/can-a-machine-learn-to-write-for-the-new-yorker
My question for the day is this something like Brexit that completely redefines the political landscape; or whether is just reinforces existing partisan views.
also this:
ReplyDeletehttps://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/cdd98d21-38c7-4421-86a9-aa9d0d35d034
wrt "fighting" obviously, for the record I'd prefer you're right.
ReplyDeletewrt is this a Brexit moment, again, like you said lots of think tanks etc. are writing such pieces.
It's really hard to say. The Depression lasted for more than a decade and many people were effected/affected by it for a generation.
As bad as this may be, it's not so concentrated as it is in Italy or Spain, so many people won't be affected, except for the unemployment/work aspect.
E.g. Suzanne has relatives in Montana. They are relatively cavalier as there have been few incidents there. Even Utah, there are over 1000 proven cases, but not that many deaths. Even though it hit here first (quarantines started around 3/13 but it probably didn't fully sink in for a few days), there are more deaths in DC, where it hit later.
Nationally, as you know plenty of people are scoffing at this, not doing SIP, etc. Sure some will die.
But it's hard to say if the event will cut through the anti-science partisanship.
cf. https://rexdouglass.github.io/TIGR/Douglass_2020_How_To_Be_Curious_Instead_of_Contrarian_About_Covid19.nb.html
and
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2020/0403/In-Kentucky-a-Democratic-governor-gains-new-fans-Republicans
Reading the Epstein stuff, the quotes from other people, etc., even Trump saying if there wasn't voter suppression no Republicans would win, I guess the reality is that since the truth isn't on the Republican side, they have to do everything in their power to denigrate facts, to call into question.
In the old themail e-letter, the editor gave an example of Mayor Barry during the lead in water crisis. How he went on tv and said everything was fine, drank a cup of water on air.
Immediately all the stores sold out of bottled water, because Barry had no credibility, people didn't trust him.
... like how the CDC postcard says "President Trump's Guidelines", I am wont to believe I should be wearing masks, because the CDC is now putting out that guidance, because my trust in the CDC has been diminished because of this, Trump, the failure on the test (gosh, maybe Elizabeth Holmes would have even done better) etc.
my line now about Brand America is:
ReplyDelete"Can't do. Won't do. You do. Fuck you."
(FT article, thank you.)
ReplyDeleteAh, the EU/Eurozone issue. I had been thinking a couple days ago that the fundamental problem is the rigid attitude toward debt and help by the Germans (and the Dutch, etc.).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/solidarity-members-eurozone-coronavirus-dutch-coronabond
But really, fundamentally, it's about deferred vs. immediate gratification as a national policy and practice.
And this, among other things, is at the heart of problems in the EU. Along with the issue of better off economies and worse off economies, in migration from the east, etc.
Granted the southern countries were spendthrifts and need(ed) to get their "stuff" together.
But to not want to help Italy or Spain right now?
The Germans, Dutch, Austrians, and Finnish right now are no different than George Osborne.
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/14/osbornes-legacy-what-the-austerity-chancellor-leaves-behind.html
Unless maybe you don't agree with me that extraordinary times require extraordinary measures.
Although the "fiscally sound four" are right that if you keep your house in order in normal times, you are much better positioned to act in abnormal times.
But how the 2008 bailout was for corporations and not individuals. E.g. with mortgages, people were told they had to suck it up and pay even if they were underwater, while the big corporations including companies like Related Companies plenty of times just walked away from their mortgages and defaulted, giving the keys to the lender.
I don't know if you noticed in that NYT place about the top counties "not reducing travel" in the face of the coronavirus, Salt Lake and Utah (where Provo is) Counties were in the top 20?
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about this, and definitely when you're out, you don't see much traffic, etc.
I do think an issue is that it is a driving universe. E.g., it doesn't seem that far but the Sprouts Market is 4 miles away, that's an 8 mile round trip. Even if we do all the right things in terms of distancing, etc., which we do, it's gonna "look bad" from a data standpoint.
I presume the spatial landscape is similar in Utah County (only been there once so far, other than driving through).
wrt "the fight":
ReplyDeletehttps://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-the-coronavirus-is-doing-to-rural-georgia
ALthough the NYT ran a similar article about Albany, Georgia in the last few days.
Again, I would much rather you (and my brother has similar beliefs) are right.
Interesting piece from December 2007 Brainiac post: http://archive.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/brainiac/2007/12/obama_boomer_or.html
ReplyDeleteMy off-the-cuff assessment is that this is the last gasp of the Baby Boom generation in the USA (possibly England/UK but don't know about other countries).
-EE
thanks for sending.
ReplyDeleteI've never thought much of myself being a boomer but I am. I think of it more in terms of the land use and transportation planning paradigm and the capture of capital, relative ease of getting jobs.
(Although for me, my personal self destructiveness--I attribute this to some elements of my bad childhood--kept me from succeeding in a traditional way in the work world.)
There was a comment on some article about article about The Villages and conservative retirees in Florida thinking everyone should easily attain a well paying job with good retirement benefits and at least one well appreciating house along the way.
I think of that as a boomer attitude. Granted Suzanne's parents are not boomers. We were at a lunch with them and some of their college friends, and I got into an argument about Occupy Wall Street... (Generally I let that s* slide, unless it goes past 70% on my outrage meter.)