Elections

 I'm finally learning not to prognosticate too much.  

Virginia.  It's nice to see Democrats pick up the State House in Virginia and keep the Senate.  A Republican won the governorship in 2021 and that was a shock although Ralph Youngkin ran a better campaign than former Governor Terry McAuliffe along with lower Democratic turnout.  In the 2017 and 2019 elections, I thought Democratic wins in Virginia presaged a lot more.  While Biden won in 2020, the rest of the ballot didn't do so well for Democrats.

Youngkin was a big time private equity guy before his election, like Mitt Romney.  Youngkin's "compassionate MAGA" (as opposed to GWB's compassionate conservatism) went over well with pundits and donors--many of whom touted him as a potentially late entrant Republican alternative to Trump.  The election results seem to reduce that likelihood significantly.

Richmond, Virginia.  The casino referendum lost again, even though it had the support of most elected officials and stakeholders like unions and the NAACP ("Richmond voters reject a casino for the second time," NBC12).

While I tend to be against casinos, maybe one in Richmond would be okay, because of Virginia's "weird" separation of cities and counties financially, and Richmond needs a big money push as it has lots of needs, and lacks access to the funds of a county.  Too bad Richmond and Henrico and Chesterfield Counties can't merge.

I haven't been to Baltimore lately, but in a comment on an article I said the area around football stadiums tend to be bad, and someone countered "not Baltimore" with a casino and now additional attractions.  Maybe for secondary cities like Baltimore and Richmond, casinos, in some situations, are acceptable.  But probably better located places, unlike say Springfield, Massachusetts.

Seattle.  Over the past 8 years, Seattle has elected lots of supra progressive politicians.  Two elections ago, business interests pumped in lots of money especially against Kshama Sawant who led the drive to tax big corporations, which eventually was passed, the Socialist Alternative representative, and made little headway, progressives ruled.  Last election after the debacle of CHOP/CHAZ, a more center candidate won as Mayor and a more law and order type as district attorney.  

This year with the continued public safety problems and the slow return of office workers to Seattle's Downtown which has had significant negative impact with lots of retail closures including a signature grocery store, and other retailers leaving the city allegedly because of crime, some of the more progressive councilmembers decamped, and it appears that a bunch of the more progressive candidates will lose--although this isn't assured as late ballots still to be counted tend to run more progressive ("Seattle is the most progressive city no more," Seattle Times).

Pennsylvania.  This year elected lots of Democrats to positions in Philadelphia suburbs and the city--where Working Families Party knocked off a couple of Republicans.  Philadelphia, like DC, reserves a couple of seats for non-Dominant parties.  In Democratic places, that's presumed to be Republicans, although in DCnow it's fake Democrats, Democrats who call themselves independents.  I'd rather it be Working Families.  A Democrat won Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) Executive, although I think Pittsburgh and the County should merge.  And for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court too.

-- "Pennsylvania’s blue wave offers Democrats hope for 2024," Philadelphia Inquirer

Andy Beshear was re-elected Governor in Kentucky, a red state, although Republicans won the Governorship in Mississippi--not really a surprise although he faced some difficulties, and a couple weeks ago in Louisiana.  And the referendum putting abortion as a right in the Ohio Constitution won, which the Republicans opposed.

Transportation.  There were a few initiatives. This year, not just yesterday (just like the Louisiana electtion was not yesterday).  The big push will be next year.

Trump versus Biden poll.  These wins make me feel better about the recent polls that Trump is leading Biden in swing states.  It's a year to the election and apparently a lot of people haven't been paying attention or they are closet authoritarians.  

-- "Republicans closely resemble autocratic parties in Hungary and Turkey – study," Guardian
-- "Study: Republican control of state government is bad for democracy," Vox

Biden and the economy.  OTOH, food prices remain high, as do gas prices, although the latter are starting to drop, and I think that influences people a lot, as well as all the news coverage on Biden's age, and the purported recession that doesn't exist.  

Of course, the Federal Reserve's raising of interest rates has had a huge impact on the real estate market--residential mortgage rates have doubled and housing sales lag significantly.  And the commercial real estate market is tanking because of work from home, but the CRE market likely isn't top of mind the way housing sales are.

Conclusion.  In blue and "mixed" states, governance matters.  In some red states, governance  doesn't matter so much, but women's rights do.