It's the Reilly Law of Retail Gravitation (stupid)

A woman walks past a store advertising a sale, on 'Black Friday' in Fairfax, Virginia November 28, 2008.(Larry Downing/Reuters)

I came downtown today to buy something at Macy's. Today is "Black Friday," the big post-Thanksgiving sale day that marks the start of the Christmas retail buying season. DC right now is a ghost town. The streets are empty. Going into places like Macy's or Urban Outfitters was pretty sedate. No big crowds. No near riots...

This is despite various buy local campaigns and even the gimmick of getting WMATA to open up the subway system at 4 am so that shoppers can get to shopping centers in time for insane deals.

All the gimmicks in the world don't matter much if you don't have things to sell.

The Reilly Law is mathematical but can be summarized pretty simply:

with transportation costs being roughly equal, people choose to shop at the place with more (choice) and better stores.

Elsewhere I have argued that the idea of more choice and better stores is expansive and includes issues concerning security, cleanliness, and comfort. (See "The "soft side" of commercial district competition".)

But in any case, the best thing to do is to focus on creating a great, interesting retail environment, with interesting stores. If you try to offer up a few big boxes (Home Depot, Target, Best Buy) spread around the city (Brentwood, Columbia Heights, Tenleytown respectively, although Best Buy is in both of the latter places), strip big box centers like Potomac Yards in Alexandria will win most times, except for those of us reliant on public transportation.

Let's put our resources into developing an unparalleled retail environment of independent shops, complemented selectively with certain types of retail chain stores.

Shoppers load their items purchased at Toys R Us during "Black Friday" in Garden City, New York November 28, 2008. Stores across the United States hope to ring in billions of dollars in holiday sales beginning on Friday, but shoppers concerned about a shrinking economy have vowed to rein in their spending. Most U.S. stores start major sales on "Black Friday", the day after Thanksgiving.REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton (UNITED STATES)

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Another way to think of this is in terms of competitive advantages. It's very difficult for traditional urban commercial districts to be able to compete on price (discount). So the stores need to focus on specialty items and advantages based on unique product lines, customer service, and other benefits. Cf this AP story about NYC, "Unique stores, Christmas markets in NYC."

And don't forget the Downtown Holiday Market, which starts next week.