Asking the wrong question #1

Too often government programs and actions are (rash) responses to actions or proposals rather than a proactive decision made in terms of overarching priorities and commitments.

The McFarlane Group is so great at playing off the various jurisdictions with regard to a stadium. See "Pro soccer stadium may come to county" and "State, municipal leaders cool to Prince George’s soccer plan: Potential sites for the new stadium include Greenbelt, College Park, New Carrollton," from the Gazette and "Md. Weighs Stadium for D.C. United: Study Will Gauge Pr. George's Benefits," from the Post.

It's but another classic example of the Growth Machine at work. As I say time and time again, if you haven't read that classic article by Harvey Molotch, or the book, Urban Fortunes, that was published later, you're going to get your clock cleaned time and time again, if you are a community-oriented representative dealing with developers.

According to the Post, Vincent Gray, Chair of the DC City Council, is looking at how to keep DC United in DC. From the article:

The step concerned Vincent C. Gray, chairman of the D.C. Council, who noted the team's success and potential for financial growth. "I continue to believe that we should work with D.C. United to construct the stadium in Poplar Point," Gray (D) said.

The real question is what is the best way to build a local economy in DC proper. It is not "how do we keep DC United in DC?"

First, you determine what is the best way to revitalize Anacostia and what to do at Poplar Point.

Second, you determine how much you are willing to spend to do this and why.

The earlier DC United proposal called for about $300 million in infrastructure improvements. That's a lot of money. What's most important is figuring out the best return on investment on $300 million in public investment in incentives and infrastructure.

If a soccer-based development is the way to do that (which I seriously doubt), then go ahead.

If not, make the hard choice, be a leader, and tell them to go to PG County.

Note that the impact of the Redskins in PG County would be minimal if there weren't a local tax on concessions and ticket sales. According to the Post article, PG County nets $10 million in Redskins-related economic benefit, but 80% comes from the additional tax on concessions and tickets. Even $10 million annually might not be an adequate return on investment in terms of what was expended by the State of Maryland and the County to land this facility.

Soccer has fewer patrons and the tickets cost much less compared to football. Likely the average additional spending/patron is much less too. Soccer teams do play more games than professional football teams. But just doing a back of the envelope calculation, it's likely that the economic impact of soccer in DC is less than $5 million/annually.

If you are looking for a 10% return on your money, that means it isn't worth much more than $50 million in public incentives to spend on keeping DC United in DC. And that is dependent on assessing taxes on tickets and concessions. Likely most of the players and team officials don't live in DC, meaning that the city won't collect additional income and property tax revenues from the employees. I don't know how much the team pays in business taxes but it isn't likely to be much.
I will say that Jack Johnson, County Executive of Prince George's County, understands one key thing, that if they are to place a soccer stadium in the County, that it should be adjacent to transit. Furthermore, it could help push the Purple Line forward. From the second Gazette article:

Prince George’s officials said they would like to see a stadium built at either the Greenbelt or New Carrollton Metrorail stations to serve as a centerpiece for development. ‘‘We are the last county in the region to really develop around our Metro stations,” said David Byrd, the county’s deputy chief administrative officer. ‘‘[A stadium] can be a great anchor for mixed-use development at Metro stations. ... When the game is over, there will be lots of things for people to do when they leave the stadium.”