Elections

What I find interesting and/or scary to watch in today's elections:

1.  Virginia state elections.  Why the hell the election is close between former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe and Republican Trump acolyte Glenn Youngkin is beyond me.  If the Republicans win, it will cast a serious pall on midterm elections in 2022, just as Democratic gains in 2017 in Virginia presaged gains in the 2018 midterm elections.

I do think part of it is fatigue on the part of Democratic voters, who have been amped up since Trump being elected in 2016 ("Virginia went big for Biden, but on eve of another pivotal election, many voters say Democrats have not delivered for them," Washington Post).  

For Virginians, that's an election every year, because state elections are held in odd years, separate from the national election cycle.  

Robbin Warner puts pro-McAuliffe signs in Ashburn, Va., October 26, 2021. (Leah Millis, Reuters).

Rather than deal with substance, Youngkin has pushed culture wars hard, which has had resonance especially around "teaching critical race theory in schools" which isn't happening ("The Republicans’ racial culture war is reaching new heights in Virginia," Guardian).

For me, the Republicans are the candidates of minoritarian government, lies and prevarication and anti-democracy, so the choice ought to be a no-brainer.

That it isn't shows how close is the divide in American politics.

But it also indicates something of great import: people want results but their expectations about how fast they can get them are unrealistic.  How could someone who has been president for ten months achieve that much, especially when the Democratic Party policy positions aren't united.  It also shows that the Democratic Party message must be muddled compared to the Republican message.

2.  New Jersey?  Like Virginia, state elections in New Jersey are during odd-numbered years.  So they have elections also.  I didn't think they posed much of interest, but New York Magazine disagrees, "New Jersey Governor’s Race Is Getting Interesting and Maybe Even Competitive."

If New Jersey went Republican, that would be a huge warning sign for the 2022 midterms.

3.  Seattle Mayoral and District Attorney elections.  Seattle, along with San Francisco, is one of the nation's leading "progressive cities," which has been concomitant with a significant increase in crime and quality of life declines.  Will people vote for the "law and order" candidate for District Attorney, or the "restorative justice/decriminalization" candidate?  Will people vote for the more radical or traditional candidate for Mayor? ("Who will lead Seattle? Competing approaches to city’s challenges define pivotal Tuesday elections," Seattle Times).

Some Council races are up too, and some involve candidates with a less progressive message.

The Washington Post argues that this is part of a general trend of mayoral candidates running on a "law and order" message, given the rise in murders over the last two years, versus the "defund the police" message that came about as part of the George Floyd/Black Lives Matters protests in 2020 ("In a setback for Black Lives Matter, mayoral campaigns shift to ‘law and order’").

-- Endorsements by The Stranger and the Seattle Times

Another race is that for King County Executive race, where three term incumbent Dow Considine is running for a fourth term, and he is opposed by Joe Nguyen, who is endorsed by The Stranger. ("In King County executive race, candidates Dow Constantine and Joe Nguyen snipe over competence, urgency," Seattle Times).

Seattle's Port Authority, which runs both the port and the airport, also has elected commissioners.

The Stranger is pretty progressive, the Seattle Times conservative, and their endorsements reflect this. Maybe one or two races, both papers endorse the same candidate.  FWIW, The Stranger tends to reflect the electorate.

4.  Minneapolis ballot referendum on "defunding the police department." The big slogan of BLM was "defund the police" which I think is a mistake.  We definitely need to redefine what public safety is and how to deliver it, to incorporate a wide variety of responses where police aren't the first responders ("The opportunity to rearticulate public safety delivery keeps being presented").

The ballot proposal calls for the creation of a Department of Public Safety with a more public health oriented response, and elimination of minimum staffing requirements for the number of police officers ("First Election in Minneapolis Since George Floyd Killing Is Referendum on Police," Wall Street Journal, "Minneapolis’ Choice: Drop or Keep Troubled Police Department," US News & World Report).

OTOH, murders are up, the city experienced rioting in response to the George Floyd killing, and people may be more concerned about rising crime than the nuances of police response.

For an interesting take on "the failure" of police reform after George Floyd, see "Black Lives Matter marches of 2020 were surprisingly white and educated. Is that why results have been so mediocre?,"  by Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Will Bunch.

Like the Democrats disappointed in Joe Biden (and not Mitch McConnell, the conservative Supreme Court, and Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema), expecting substantive reform of police in 18 months is unrealistic.  OTOH, change requires constant pressure, especially in the face of vociferous opposition by police unions ("How Police Unions Became Such Powerful Opponents to Reform Efforts," New York Times, "How Police Unions Fight Reform," New Yorker).

5. Buffalo, New York Mayoral election.  India Walton, the progressive candidate who says she's a socialist, beat the incumbent Byron Brown, in the Democratic primary ("S").  It was seen as a great progressive victory, but maybe Brown wasn't paying attention.  He's mounted a write-in campaign, has gotten lots of contributions and endorsements, and it looks like he will win ("Who’s afraid of India Walton?," Washington Post, "India Walton Beat the Buffalo Mayor in a Primary. He Won’t Give Up," New York Times).  Shades of how Upton Sinclair didn't become Governor of California.

6.  Atlanta Mayoral race.  One term mayor Keisha Bottoms decided not to run again, and 14 candidates are on the ballot ("Atlanta, long known as the seat of Black economic and political power, votes on its future in mayoral election," Washington Post).  "Law and order" is an issue in this race too, although most of the candidates favor an increase in the police budget and number of officers.  

A rise in crime has led to a campaign in the high income Buckhead district to secede and create a separate city, which would have a devastating impact on the city's property tax revenues.  Georgia has runoffs when the top candidate doesn't win at least 50% of the vote, so a runoff is likely.

7.  Boston Mayoral election.  Michelle Wu, with an overwhelming lead according to the polls, is the more progressive candidate, Annissa Essaibi George is less so.  The Boston Globe has endorsed Wu, the Boston Herald Essaibi George ("Herald backs Annissa Essaibi-George for mayor of Boston").

8.  Salt Lake City Council Races and Ranked Choice Voting.  Not of national interest, but an important illustration of the value of ranked choice voting.  

Many of the seats are up for election, partly because of previous resignations, and there are many candidates for most of the council races--19 candidates for 5 seats ("Your guide to the Salt Lake City Council election," Salt Lake Deseret News).

With first past the post--the most votes wins--it's likely that most of the Councilmembers will be elected by a plurality but by no means a majority of votes.  With ranked choice voting, people rank their choices, and all of their preferences are factored in when selecting the final winner.

This is the first year that RCV is legal, on a pilot basis, and individual cities and counties have to chose to opt in.  Many places throughout the state have chosen to participate.

Note that Utah, a Republican dominated state, is a state where the electorate is sent a mailed ballot.  So in "Big Lie" terms, mailed ballots aren't a "Democratic" or "Republican" thing, they are a pro-participation measure.

In DC, RCV would be great for primaries, because the electorate is mostly Democrat.  But sometimes races have many candidates, but with first past the post, the winner is usually a plurality, while more votes were cast for other candidates.  RCV can help bring about a potentially fairer result, reflecting a majority of the preferences of the electorate.

9.  Mayor of Cottonwood Heights, Utah.  Definitely not important nationally, except that all five candidates are "against" putting in a gondola as a transportation demand management measure in Little Cottonwood Canyon, a major ski destination, which is an issue I plan to write about ("Police issues at forefront of Cottonwood Heights’ mayoral race," Salt Lake Tribune).

But the Salt Lake County Mayor (County Executive) ("Mayor Wilson shuns canyon gondola, more buses, but UDOT has final say," KUTV) and Salt Lake City Mayor ("Both Salt Lake County and Salt Lake City criticize UDOT’s Little Cottonwood plan," Salt Lake Tribune) have weighed in against too.  It's a great example of the prominence of nimbyism and the difficulty of finding visionary elected officials. 

I favor the gondola.  The alternatives are two different bus options.  The gondola is cheaper than one bus option, and a bit more expensive than the other.  Although I am surprised it won't have greater capacity than about 1,000 passengers per hour.

It's not like there aren't gondolas/aerial trams already operative in the US, but especially Europe and South America.  But there is a tram operating at the Snowbird Ski Resort already.  Although being older its towers aren't particularly elegantly designed.

But local opposition reflects the belief that they don't exist elsewhere.  Interestingly, people favor motor vehicle options rather than the most sustainable mobility, even as they tout their environmental credentials.

-- Gondola Works, pro-gondola group
-- Friends of Little Cottonwood Canyon, anti-gondola
-- "Video simulation shows gondola proposal for Little Cottonwood Canyon," Fox13-TV

While press coverage makes the point that the decision will be made by the Utah Department of Transportation, transit agencies prefer to be on the same page with elected officials.  That whoever becomes Mayor of Cottonwood Heights and the County Executive are opposed does not bode well for the gondola proposal.

10.  Detroit?  The mayoral race features two term incumbent Mike Duggan who is white, and a candidacy by Anthony Adams, who is black ("Mike Duggan, Anthony Adams have striking differences in Detroit's mayor race," Detroit Free Press).