Academics argue there isn't a housing shortage as much as a problem with income and the mix of housing available
-- "Housing Prices Are Too High. Building More Homes Won’t Solve the Problem," Barron's
A longer-term perspective, however, shows that America isn’t suffering from a housing shortage. Housing production has lagged behind household growth since 2010, but this doesn’t account for the massive overhang of housing produced in the previous decade. Fueled by the housing bubble of 2000-07, 160 homes were added to the stock for every 100 households formed during the aughts, our analysis of Census Bureau data shows. This level of production created a huge surplus of housing, which has yet to be fully absorbed.Put differently, from 2000-21, the nation grew by 18.5 million households. To maintain an adequate inventory of vacant housing, which historically would be 9.3% of the total, the housing stock needed to expand by 20.2 million units. Instead, it grew by 23.7 million housing units, producing a surplus of 3.5 million units.... The belief that there is a housing shortage is correctly motivated by concern over the housing-affordability problems that confront so many households. But census data show that these housing-affordability problems largely reflect a mismatch between household incomes and housing prices.Here, prices refer to housing prices in the market as a whole, not just the prices of new-to-the-market homes, which fluctuate widely with the pace of housing production. Housing-affordability problems for the population as a whole aren’t related to housing shortages or low vacancy rates. Rather, they are driven by high overall housing prices and low household incomes.
Labels: affordable housing, household wealth dynamics, housing market, housing policy and planning
8 Comments:
The starts off on the wrong foot. In what way is the national total of housing units relevant?
And then they say there's no shortage, it's just that the housing is too expensive.
People (even academics? especially academics?) will rationalize away what they don't want to see.
So what's your take?
I know people try to argue with me sometimes that the US has so much land. My counter is 70% of the people live in metropolitan areas, so availability of land in places like Idaho or Alaska isn't particularly relevant.
No question though that the mix of housing production is a big issue, not that the private sector has the "responsibility" to produce a socially useful mix versus that of highest value.
Then there is the issue of SFH versus MH and the fact thst in regional cores, except in rare instances it doesn't make economic sense to build SFH.
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