Transit death spiral starts with Philadelphia

Most major transit systems are experiencing funding difficulties because of how post-covid work from home (WFH) has affected transit system business models.  

-- "Three ideas to save S.F. Muni that have nothing to do with cutting service," "‘There is a real problem’: Bay Area legislators seek to prevent BART and Muni from unraveling," San Francisco Chronicle, "A Last-Ditch Effort to Fund Bay Area Transit Tries to Pick Up Support," KQED/NPR

-- "Chicago ain’t ready for transit reform — yet," Crain's Chicago Business, "llinois lawmakers call for special session to address $771M public transit shortfall," ABC7

-- "As WMATA’s new budget goes into effect, future funding woes remain," Greater Greater Washington

Formerly, there was lots of ridership during M-F community periods, with some ridership at night and on weekends.  Now there are fewer riders, which significantly reduces farebox revenues.  For bus-based systems fares aren't that significant a funding source.  They are for rail.

Poster by Joseph Binder, c. 1950s.

Chicago Transit Authority, Avoid Street Congestion poster by Arthur A. Johnson, 1926.

MBTA Commuter Magazine 1971: Welcome to the T Party

Philadelphia's transit system, SEPTA, is the closest to the brink.  Effective yesterday, they started cutting service ("Phillies fans slowed but not deterred by SEPTA service cuts," Philadelphia Inquirer).  From the article:

Ryerson noted the critical — but sometimes overlooked — role that public transportation plays in everyday life.

“If you really think about how you’ve made some big choices — where you live, where your children go to school, where you work, even the frequency at which you go to a Phillies game — all of these choices are shaped around your income, the makeup of your family, and your transportation accessibility,” she said.

The elimination of certain bus routes might force some parents to rethink where their children attend school, Ryerson said, while teenagers could lose a pillar of their independence. Transit cuts can also lead to an increase in people skipping health screenings and vaccinations. “There’s a huge negative impact on public health from not providing that connectivity,” Ryerson said.

The Pennsylvania Legislature is pretty evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, and the Republicans in the Senate aren't interested in long term funding or stability, and have proposed some short term fixes, which the Democrats do not support.  So the state hasn't passed a budget, and SEPTA has started cutting service, as it first proposed during initial budget discussions.

-- "Philadelphia transit hits ‘death spiral.’ More cities could follow," Washington Post

SEPTA officials have called it a “death spiral.” The changes to one of the nation’s largest mass transit agencies are expected to hit the poor, elderly and daily commuters the hardest. Many will have to start their commutes earlier and arrive home later.

They have warned of “fiscal cliffs” in which transit systems start cutting services, potentially reducing ridership in ways that necessitates even deeper service cuts. Transit agencies in Chicago, Dallas, Portland and San Francisco all face similar challenges.

SEPTA, which serves about 800,000 riders daily, will curtail service on all bus and rail lines by 20 percent as well as eliminate 32 bus routes on Sunday. The changes are expected to make buses and trains slower and more crowded as well as present new complications for 55,000 Philadelphia students who start school on Monday.

But since the pandemic slashed ridership for big city transit systems, officials and transit experts have been raising questions about the sustainability of public transportation that millions of Americans rely on each day.

The cuts this month are just a preview of even more painful reductions in January unless Pennsylvania’s legislature acts soon to help SEPTA close a $231 million budget shortfall. The transit agency will raise fares by about 22 percent on Sept. 1, and reduce service by another 25 percent in January. It will also eliminate five commuter rail lines that service the suburbs as well as Delaware and New Jersey.

-- "SEPTA’s massive cuts are here and it’s ‘bad on so many levels’," Philadelphia Inquirer

SEPTA is cutting 20% of its service; 32 bus lines will be eliminated, including series 400 routes that serve schools, and 16 other routes will be shortened. Buses, trolleys, and subways will reduce the number of trips offered, lengthening waits for riders.

On Sept. 2, Regional Rail service will be reduced. That could mean up to two hours between trains in the midday hours during the week and on weekends.

I never did write a blog entry about how I was impressed with the graphic renditions of what the service cuts would mean.  And an infographic they produced on the economic value of transit in Philadelphia to the region and state.  

Unfortunately, conservatives tend to be anti-public good, anti-transit, and anti-public investment.  They have a hard time thinking about transit as a product and as an economic development tool, or that Philadelphia's economy is important to the rest of the state.

Usually a crisis gets people to finally act, but that hasn't been the case in Pennsylvania.

Chicago's transit system has the same problem, but transfers from other regional transit services have staved off the kinds of cuts that are starting in Philadelphia. ("CTA gets $74M from Metra, Pace to delay 40% service cuts next year," Chicago Sun-Times).

Since the Trump Administration is anti-transit, federal funds aren't something that agencies can try to get to deal with the "fiscal cliff."  Transit is an essential foundation of success for large legacy cities, which could not support the number of people and trips by relying on the automobile.

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Never stop building your transit funding sources, it's easier when you are successful, and very hard when you are failing.

This article, "Key Oregon Democrats signal support for public transit, climate-friendly transportation framework." (Portland Oregonian) reminds me of past writings about setting up for success in case of potential failure, using the example of the Rochester NY bus system, which before the Great Financial Crisis, had already established relationships with local institutions, which paid toward transit provision ("Creativity Helps Rochester’s Transit System Turn a Profit," New York Times).  So when tax revenues dropped, they had access to other sources.

And the point I make about transit systems, and DC in particular, that the best time to solidify funding agreements are when you are wildly successful.  For DC that was within the first 10 years of the launch of Metrorail in 1976 ("WMATA and MWCOG announce new joint transit initiative | Could a regional "transport association" be on the horizon, or just a transit bailout?," 2024, "WMATA Chief says it’s time to talk about a regional tax to help fund Metro (DC area)," 2023).

From the Oregonian:

A group of Democratic lawmakers on Wednesday unveiled a high-level concept for a transportation package that would significantly boost funding for public transit and climate-friendly pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure.

To pay for those needs while also funding basic road and bridge maintenance, Democrats proposed gradually increasing the state’s gas tax from 40 cents to 80 cents per gallon, increasing car registration and title fees, implementing a 2% sales tax on new vehicles and increasing the state’s payroll tax for transit fivefold to 0.5%.

It’s unclear how many of those suggestions will ultimately end up in a transportation package that lawmakers are hoping to pass this legislative session, which must end by late June. But a significant number of Democrats, about 17, have expressed support for the transit and climate related provisions, including three members of the key Joint Transportation Committee.

The basic ideas underlying the new proposal are similar to a more comprehensive transportation funding framework that the Democratic leaders of the Joint Transportation Committee put forward in April. That framework suggested more than 10 tax and fee increases to better maintain Oregon’s roads and bridges as well as shore up funding to public transit, rail and bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure. Those tax hikes included a 20 cent increase to the gas tax and a 1% tax on new vehicle purchases.

Note that the past blog entry, "Metrolinx Toronto: 25 potential tools to fund transit-transportation infrastructure," (2013) lists many different funding sources for transit, based on a study for Greater Toronto's Metrolinx regional transportation authority.  I've since added a few in the comments, although the overall entry hasn't been updated.  (I haven't compared the ones suggested in the proposed Oregon framework against this list.)