Jobs slowdown: an own goal by the Trump Administration
Moody's Analytics says 20 states could go into recession ("Massachusetts recession risk is high," Boston Globe).
-- "US Job Openings Fell in July to Lowest Level in Nearly a Year," Bloomberg
Most jobs have a multiplier effect, usually from 2 to 4. Not unlike how there are 4-10 soldiers in the back supporting each soldier in combat.
The Trump Administration has eliminated 300,000 jobs ("Year Will End With 300,000 Fewer Federal Workers, Trump Official Says," New York Times). With a multiplier, that's likely about 1.5 million jobs lost. As well as people who decide to leave because of the uncertainty ("These Philly federal workers loved their jobs. But amid Trump’s shakeup they chose to leave," Philadelphia Inquirer)
Cuts at the Agency for International Development and others in all told, have cost 176,000 jobs ("'We have to try lifting ourselves': USAID workers fired months ago are still scrambling for jobs," USA Today).
Separately, federal grant cuts also effect jobs and the health of organizations such as farms, universities ("Stanford lays off hundreds, citing federal cuts under Trump," San Francisco Chronicle, "How Trump forced cuts at wealthy universities," Inside Higher Education), and other entities. Plus the multiplier effect on contractors and others.
Immigration enforcement has affected workers in many fields including agriculture, meat packing, and retail, manufacturing sites ("Homeland security official says 475 people were detained during an immigration raid in Georgia," AP) and restaurants. That reduces jobs, not just for the undocumented, but for other workers.
Let alone all the uncertainty created by tariffs and other interventions into the economy, leading businesses to postpone plans for growth ("American Businesses in ‘Survival Mode’ as Trump Tariffs Pile Up," New York Times). Many firms are doing layoffs. Chevron and BP announced major cuts ("Chevron and BP cutting thousands of jobs," Chemistry World). Tech firms too.
And we can't forget healthcare, which will be roiled by cuts to Medicaid, leading to hospital closures and job cuts, which are happening already ("How Medicaid and SNAP Cutbacks in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Would Trigger Big and Bigger Job Losses Across States," Commonwealth Fund, "Hospitals make painful choices as federal cutbacks add to economic headwinds," AAMC, "Health care has been a job market bright spot, but Trump's budget bill looms over the industry," NBC).
I read a story, don't remember from where, a conservative organ, saying "what do you mean losses from tariffs? I don't see any." It reminded me of Brexit. Effects aren't immediate. They happen over long periods of time, and persist.
But they are starting to be felt (" Government & Politics States begin to see job losses from Trump’s cuts, housing and spending slowdowns," Indiana Capital Chronicle).
Plus, in terms of "bolstering US manufacturing," a company can't build a plant in 4-6 months, the period in which Trump has been imposing illegal tariffs ("Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs Invalidated by Appeals Court," New York Times). From the CNN article, "If Trump loses his tariff lawsuit, America may have to refund businesses more than $200 billion":
American businesses have paid over $210 billion as of August 24 to cover the tariffs that US courts have determined are illegal. On Tuesday, Trump acknowledged that the court’s decision, if upheld by the Supreme Court, could result in the US Treasury having to “give back” tariff revenue collected.
It takes years to build a plant ("Trump is promising a US manufacturing renaissance. Many experts are dubious," Guardian).
With the previous report of lackluster job numbers, Trump fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("Trump fires lead official on economic data as tariffs cause market drop," BBC), with likely broader negative repercussions in terms of trust in the US as a partner and a market ("Firing of labor statistics head undermines trust in key data, ex-Trump official warns," PBS).
Who is Trump gonna fire now? ("First Jobs Report Since Labor Statistics Chief’s Firing Shows Weak Market, as Trump Pledges ‘Real Numbers’ Still to Come," Time).
I'm surprised that anyone is surprised by this economic downturn.
Labels: employment
posted by Richard Layman @ 6:59 PM&Permanent Link
13 Comments:
What the latest jobs report means for you … buckle up
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/06/economy/us-jobs-report-impacts-americans
Supplier scraps $210 million EV battery plant in Detroit over ‘current policy’ in U.S.
https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/suppliers/an-battery-plant-detroit-scrapped-0905/
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/elevate/chicago-latino-businesses-hurt-immigration-policies
Immigration crackdown deals a blow to Chicago's Latino business corridors
Moreno’s Liquors has weathered, and even prospered, through one economic downturn after another since opening in Little Village in 1977.
COVID-19, the Great Recession and economic busts in the early 2000s, 1990s and 1980s didn’t wipe out profits for the family-run business on the corner of 26th Street and Ridgeway Avenue.
Since President Donald Trump started his second term in January, his immigration enforcement orders have been a different story. They have contributed to a grim first: The store's sales are down 20% this year, says Mike Moreno Jr., 34, who runs the business with his parents.
“It was said, and we said, the liquor industry was recession-proof,” Moreno says. But this is a perfect storm, he adds, citing concerns over high-profile immigration enforcement, inflation, tariffs and worries that a recession looms.
In interviews, small-business owners and leaders who serve Latino communities in the Chicago area have blamed immigration arrests and deportations as the main factor behind year-over-year revenue drops ranging from 20% to 50%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-11/us-initial-jobless-claims-jump-to-highest-in-almost-four-years
US Initial Jobless Claims Jump to Highest in Almost Four Years
Cardboard Box Sales Fall in Worrying Sign for US Retail - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/cardboard-box-sales-fall-in-worrying-sign-for-us-retail
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-09-16/black-unemployment-rises-with-trump-s-workforce-cuts-jobs-slowdown
Black Unemployment Is Surging in Trump's Overhaul of US Economy
Two factors have combined to create such an outcome, researchers say: First, a slowdown in the broader labor market is playing out in the usual fashion, disadvantaging Black workers who tend to be first to lose their jobs when things go south. Second is Trump’s targeted efforts to shrink the federal workforce, where Black workers are overrepresented.
https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/suppliers/an-trump-tariffs-lucerne-detroit-withdraw-0922/
Auto supplier scraps $50 million Detroit factory plan as tariffs drive up costs
Lucerne International Inc.’s plan for a $50 million hot aluminum forging plant with 325 new jobs in Detroit — the culmination of the automotive supplier’s three-year effort to bring manufacturing from China to the U.S. — was nearly a done deal.
Then came President Donald Trump’s frenzied tariffs and regulatory upheaval, prompting decision-making paralysis across the industry.
Lucerne, which makes components for Stellantis, Rivian and large Tier 1 suppliers, is still committed to onshoring, owner and CEO Mary Buchzeiger said, but the aluminum forging project is being pushed out further, scaled down and likely moved out of Michigan.
“It’s everything converging at once,” Buchzeiger told Crain’s Detroit Business, an affiliate of Automotive News. “You’ve got tariffs that are hitting our equipment costs. You’ve got tariffs that are hitting our raw material costs. You’ve got these questions over the Inflation Reduction Act. You’ve got the industry itself, where programs are being delayed or canceled, margins are being squeezed.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/09/25/newsletters/trump-massachusetts-economy-business-climate-2
Assets can become liabilities.
Intentional or not, the Trump administration is shoveling sand into the gears of the local economy.
Research funding cuts. Massachusetts ranked third in the country in fiscal 2024 in grant dollars from the National Institutes of Health. This year, with funding down and the administration attempting even deeper cuts, local universities, research organizations, and medical schools have frozen hiring, reduced budgets, and cut jobs.
Restrictive immigration and mass deportations. Massachusetts relies on immigrants to fill low-wage jobs and high-end positions. That’s the reality of having an older population and one of the highest rates of residents moving to other states.
Efforts to curtail international student enrollment. The state’s colleges and universities have the highest percentage of international students as a share of total college and university enrollment in the country — 17 percent in 2023.
A new $100,000 fee for H-1B work visas. Massachusetts ranked seventh in H-1B visas granted in the US last year. They are used widely in professional services, biotech, and tech.
he H-1B Visa Reset Will Crush America’s College Pipeline
Every fifth person pursuing a STEM career in the US is foreign-born. Many will be already weighing rival offers pitching for young talent.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-25/h-1b-visa-reset-will-crush-us-college-pipeline
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-09-23/heres-why-ceos-think-trumps-economic-policies-arent-working
What accounts for the discrepancies between Trump’s wishes and the facts on the ground? Evidence is mounting that they’re the consequence of policies based on ideology and implemented incompetently.
This all suggests that Trump’s aides and agents act on his whims without stopping to ponder the consequences of their policies or procedures beyond whether they’ll satisfy Trump, much less whether they’ll actually advance his purported goals. The result is often just the opposite of what he says he wants.
That’s true of the administration’s tariff policies. As economist Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan observed in April, after Trump announced the first round of his “reciprocal” tariffs against most countries of the world, “This is a tariff policy we’ve been told will solve the fentanyl crisis, get rid of illegal immigration, rescue the budget deficit, solve bilateral trade deficits and cure toe fungus. All of these things can’t happen at once and in the way they’re pursuing them, actually we’re serving none of those goals.”
Trump also promoted his tariffs as a tool to restore manufacturing as a driver of U.S. economic growth. There’s no evidence of that happening. Manufacturing employment fell to 12.72 million in August from 12.76 million in April and down from 12.8 million in August 2024, according to government data.
No one should be surprised at the decline, since the on-again-off-again tariff policies lacking anything resembling a serious analysis of their effects makes manufacturers leery of making the long-term commitments necessary to build or expand a plant.
American Companies Had Lowest Job Growth in Eight Months
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/american-companies-hit-the-brakes-on-hiring-a76cff6f
Weighed down by high interest rates, a federal crackdown on immigration and uncertainty over tariffs, more companies are deciding they are better off with a smaller head count.
Last month, businesses added 74,000 new jobs, an anemic number compared with previous months. Private-sector job growth fell to the lowest level since October 2024. Of the 147,000 total new jobs added in June, nearly half were in government, bolstered by a jump in state and local government jobs.
On top of that, more than half of private industries cut jobs in June, Labor Department data indicates—only the third time this has happened since April 2020. For most of the postpandemic period, the majority of industries were adding jobs.
Many employers say there are just too many question marks hanging over the economy to expand head count right now. Warby Parker this spring told investors it would slow the pace of its hiring and reduce other expenses to help its profitability.
“Industries that are more reliant on immigrants have seen slower job growth in recent months,” said Jed Kolko, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. At the same time, the drop in immigration means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the unemployment rate steady.
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturers, which often get components and materials from abroad. Manufacturing employment fell in June for the second straight month, data from the Labor Department shows. The drop was particularly noticeable, Kolko said, in high-wage manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors and machinery, which did well in recent years.
https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commentary/philadelphia-shipyard-immigration-investment-korea-hyundai-20251008.html
Philadelphia’s $5B shipyard dream may hit an immigration iceberg
ICE crackdowns on skilled guest workers threaten foreign investments.
Global tourism surges with double-digit growth while US visits flatline
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/10/20/lifestyle/global-tourism-surges-us-declines
Travel and tourism are booming,” said Gloria Guevara, president and CEO of the WTTC. “It’s booming everywhere.”
Everywhere, but with one notable exception: the United States. Tourist spending here is projected to decline by more than $12 billion in 2025. So, while global tourism surges ahead with double-digit growth, the United States is flatlining. The number of inbound tourists has fallen nearly every month since President Trump was sworn into office in January. According to the WTTC, international visitor spending in the country is projected to decline by 7 percent in 2025, making it the only economy in the world to experience such a decrease.
While leaders in Europe are grappling with overtourism at popular sites, tourism officials in the United States are scrambling to let the world know that the country is still open despite government shutdowns, political rhetoric, tariff wars, shootings, National Guard deployments, expensive visas, and immigration crackdowns.
“International travelers are coveted because they stay longer and spend four times as much as their domestic counterparts,” said Kyle Deckelbaum, a spokesman for Destination DC.
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