A problem with economic analysis can be what it measures
For example "Rising divorce rates put a strain on the environment" according to the Guardian but the Toronto Globe and Mail tells us that "Divorce stokes the condo boom." From the article:
... divorce is a "terrible thing" for people to go through. "But for real estate agents, we do really well because we sell them the apartments they both lived in before they get together, then they get married and buy a bigger apartment or house, and we sell them that. Then when they split up, inevitably, five years later, we sell the house or condo, and they buy two more. "In a matter of five years, you are doing six or seven transactions, as opposed to 20 years ago, [when] you'd be doing just one."
Economics measures the amount of economic activity. Use of resources is economically positive because it represents a transaction, even if the resources are being depleted.
So even though energy prices are increasing, and crowding out certain types of consumption, for the most part the way this is measured shows an improving economy (if there are no other simultaneous negatives present).
I was reading the Good Practice Guide on Planning for Tourism from the UK Department of Communities and Local Government yesterday and in discussing market studies and projections of economic activity, one of the case studies made the point that a full, not a partial, economic analysis is required:
Outputs from the analysis include estimates of the:
• gross economic impact, based on the additional number of visitors that Tate St Ives will attract, over and above current numbers. The development’s impact is measured by the employment created and income generated in the area of impact and throughout the supply chain.
• net additional economic impact, including leakage, deadweight, displacement and multiplier effects.
• financial benefits, based on expenditure of the additional visitors on admissions, shop and café and the additional on-site employment it supports; and
• wider economic benefits, including expenditure on suppliers, off-site spending by day visitors, off-site spending by overnight holiday makers drawn to the area specifically to visit the Tate, supply spending by tourism related businesses and the income induced/multiplier effect.
Too often, "deadweight" and "displacement" impacts are not being adequately covered.
Deadweight is economic activity that would have occured regardless of the investment. Displacement is "the degree to which the outputs of the project have occurred at the expense of outputs elsewhere."
Labels: agglomeration economies, building a local economy, economic development, innovation
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