Estimate that 10,000 retail stores will close this year

See "Avalanche of store closings coming, study says" from the Chicago Sun-Times, which reports on a study by the consultancy Grant Thornton.

Over the past 10 or so years of involvement in commercial district revitalization, I have gotten a bit more nuanced and "sophisticated" in my understanding of how the process should work in traditional commercial districts.

1. When I first was involved, I believed in 100% independently owned businesses. While that's ideal in terms of generating the most local economic benefit, the reality is that the retail industry is quite concentrated and that it is very difficult for independent stores to be cost competitive in certain categories.

2. Even so, for the most part, chains aren't interested in "traditional commercial districts," with the exception of downtowns and other high value locations.

3. That means for the average commercial district working to lease up vacant space, that they must create a system for developing and nurturing successful start ups.

So a three part system/plan is required:

1. A retail attraction/recruitment plan for chain companies that might be interested. (People like the predictability of chain stores, and it helps lend positive associations and imprimatur to the commercial district.)

2. A retail and services entrepreneurship development program to link people, concepts, financing, systems, and available space.

3. A focused retail development and improvement program for extant businesses.

Add to this an overall commercial district revitalization framework plan (such as this one that I worked on for Cambridge, Maryland, Market Analysis 2009 for Downtown Cambridge, Maryland) including a good section on branding and image development and you're set.

The only thing is that for the most part, no one is doing this three part program anywhere in the country.

Also see:

- Retail and restaurant check up surveys
- Why ask why? Because (on store operations and systems)
- Indepependent retail businesses can succeed and thrive
- Store siting decisions
- Why the future of urban retail isn't chains
- (Why aren't people) Learning from Jane Jacobs
- (Why aren't people) Learning from Jane Jacobs revisited
- Data, not sentiment, drives retail site location decisions
- Why you must consider the regional retail landscape
- To get independent businesses you need to rebuild the supporting infrastructure
- Richard's Rules for Restaurant Driven Revitalization
- Creating the "new new" thing: commercial district revitalization
- The soft side of commercial district competition