Rebuilding Place in the Urban Space

"A community’s physical form, rather than its land uses, is its most intrinsic and enduring characteristic." [Katz, EPA] This blog focuses on place and placemaking and all that makes it work--historic preservation, urban design, transportation, asset-based community development, arts & cultural development, commercial district revitalization, tourism & destination development, and quality of life advocacy--along with doses of civic engagement and good governance watchdogging.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Richard's Rules for Restaurant Based Revitalization in the face of a pandemic

Focused on center cities, the original post from 2005, and subsequent entries focus on restaurants as anchors for commercial district revitalization, leveraging the fact that because (1) people eat every day; (2) restaurants draw people to come out and sample a place, even one that had been seen as gnarly; and (3) spearheading additional retail development; (4) based on a shared base of customers and cross-promotion.

-- "Richard's Rules for Restaurant-Driven Revitalization (updated)," 2005, is the basic piece, with five rules (below) and a list of elements denoting quality restaurants
-- "Revisiting Richard's Rules for Restaurant-Based Revitalization," 2010
-- "Updating Richard's Rules for Restaurant-Driven Revitalization," 2013
-- "DC restaurants, location and equilibrium," 2014
-- "Ice cream shops as commercial district activation devices," 2018

But even in the best circumstances, it's a tough business with narrow margins ("My Restaurant Was My Life for 20 Years. Does the World Need It Anymore?," New York Times) that have gotten only worse with:

(1) campaigns to increase minimum wage to $15 ("Higher minimum wage means restaurants are likely to raise prices and fewer employee hours, survey finds," CNBC)

(2) health insurance costs for employees (when offered)

(3) increased competition as areas improve and more restaurants open ("The problem with food tourism: the chefs fighting to keep their restaurants special," Guardian)

(4) higher rents as commercial districts improve and demand for space rebounds

(5) the rise of e-commerce and third party ordering and delivery platforms like UberEats ("It costs Uber Eats $43.5 to deliver a $40 food order," Menabytes) which capture a significant number of takeout orders diverting precious margins to the platform and away from the restaurant ("Viral Facebook Post Shows Just How Little Restaurants Make From Grubhub Orders," Eater)

That's without a pandemic.

The pandemic and restaurants.  The New York Times writes, "As Restaurants Remain Shuttered, American Cities Fear the Future," about fears that restaurant closures will have significant negative impacts on urban revitalization on two dimensions, on commercial district revitalization and on how cities have leveraged restaurants as a way to promote tourism.

Sadly, I have to agree.   While many restaurants have pivoted towards takeout and delivery, and may even sell groceries including harder to find items, sourced from their wholesalers, it's doesn't fully replace lost business nor employ as many workers.

A restaurant in Singapore.

Until people feel confident going out in public, restaurants aren't going to get a lot of business, especially given findings that ventilation systems can spread the virus quite easily.

And because of social distancing requirements, they will have to reduce restaurant capacity, which further reduces potential profits and the need for employees ("Restaurant owner and Trump appointee says social distancing not practical for restaurants," CBS News).

This will be devastating for restaurants, commercial districts, and cities.

Plus, property owners won't reduce rents by 50% even though space utilization and therefore revenue generating  potential is reduced, and it will take some time for cities to lower property assessments if this becomes a longer term condition.

In the meantime many restaurants have announced they won't be reopening ("A lot of restaurants are already permanently closed," Restaurant Business).

And buffet style restaurants seem likely to close ("Souplantation's buffet-style restaurants closing for good," San Diego Union Tribune), although a documentary ("Covid-19: Battle on the Cruise Ship") on NHK analyzing how the virus was spread on the Diamond Princess cruise ship indicated that a switch to a more cafeteria style set up, with food dished out by staff would eliminate virus spread deriving from the current configuration.

Ad promoting Houston to potential visitors as an exciting restaurant destination.  

Culinary tourism as a phenomenon.  Tourism is a key economic development element for most major cities in the era of post-industrialization.  Before the pandemic, cities like Chicago and New York hosted many tens of millions of visitors annually.

And cities like DC, New York City, and even Providence, Rhode Island promoted food tourism quite heavily as part of tourism marketing campaigns ("The Future of Food Tourism Goes Beyond the Restaurant Experience," Skift).

Food is a key element of the visitor experience, especially because "we eat every day" and dishes can be quite memorable("Food, tourism, and culture: the keys to success of a global trend, TrekkSoft)

Culinary tourism benefits a city more than individual commercial districts.  We should differentiate between  "culinary tourism" for a city or region and "restaurant-based revitalization" at the scale of the commercial district.

Categorizing restaurant districts.  While there are plenty examples of one-off destination restaurants that aren't part of larger districts, I've outlined five primary categories:

(1) regional and touristy-serving, like Downtown and Georgetown, but also Alexandria and now The Wharf district in SW DC, probably the Ballpark District/Navy Yard

(2) center city/metropolitan serving, like 14th Street NW, Adams-Morgan, U Street NW, and H Street NE in DC, or Bethesda and Silver Spring in Montgomery County, Maryland

(3) day-time office district serving (which can be a "daypart" distinction for regional and center city districts that serve different market segments at night)

(4) larger neighborhood serving districts like Dupont Circle, Capitol Hill, Columbia Heights

(5) smaller neighborhood serving districts like Old Takoma in Takoma Park Maryland, abutting DC.

One of my favorite one offs in the DC area is Black Market Bistro in the old train station in Garrett Park, Maryland.  That restaurant serves the area, Montgomery County mostly, while Inn at Little Washington is a national phenomenon, "Haute cuisine in a tiny town," Virginia Business).

Commercial district patronage overall versus individual restaurants.  While culinary tourism drives business for individual restaurants, I don't think it works to help commercial districts all that much, as I've written here:

-- "An update to Richard's Rules for Restaurant-Based Revitalization on the failure of wine bar restaurants in DC and Baltimore," 2018
-- "Destination restaurants as a call for revisiting "Richard's Rules for Restaurant-Based Revitalization"," 2017

Basically, local residents eating in local commercial districts are more likely to also shop at other establishments in the district, while out-of-neighborhood visitors, from within the city or metropolitan area or tourists, are not.

And that is what I zeroed in on in the very first post, which was a response to a Philadelphia Inquirer article and someone else's blog post, focusing on destination restaurants as a driver of commercial district revitalization. I disagreed. My counter point is that to get people to sample what had been neglected and underutilized neighborhood commercial districts, restaurants were key, but you had to focus on serving area residents, and develop them into repeat and frequent customers.

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13 Comments:

At 11:07 AM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

The story of a destination restaurant failing in Baltimore sheds a different light.

https://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/news/2020/05/08/the-ultimate-death-sentence-why-the-alexander.html

First, the proprietors while well capitalized and experienced are based mostly in Florida (drawn to the property in Baltimore because of a relationship with the owner) and this site was not a priority for them.

Second, it had location issues that they weren't really cognizant of.

Third, the general fall off in visitation in Baltimore since the Freddie Gray riots and urban political, economic and social drift.

But the proprietors are experienced and do interesting concepts in other places.

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/so-why-isnt-blake-casper-resting-on-his-laurels-and-eating-egg-mcmuffins-every-morning-at-one-of-his-64-mcdonalds-20181118/

 
At 12:34 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/the-pandemic-is-changing-how-we-eat-but-not-for-the-better/2020/05/07/5e4623e6-906b-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

I think it's more complicated. Changes will be bimodal. Some people will cook at home more as a result of the pandemic. Others will continue to buy food. But if spending becomes a bigger issue if the economy deflates somewhat, more people will be "forced" to cook at leas more.

 
At 1:28 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/while-total-u-s-restaurant-traffic-declines-by-22-in-march-digital-and-delivery-orders-jump-by-over-60-1029186081

5/11/2020

 
At 11:23 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

https://www.eater.com/2020/4/24/21229743/famous-chefs-employee-support-coronavirus

https://news.yahoo.com/tom-colicchio-restaurant-industry-bearing-184338504.html

 
At 8:28 AM, Anonymous charlie said...

On a micro scale, it's been interesting to see what restaurants are trying right now and which are basically giving up.

Again, I'd agree with you that repeat local customers are what are the ultimate drivers.

I don't know if you made it down to the wharf before you left but areas like that are going to have problems.

On 14th st, I'd say about 1/2 are open. Some popular ones (barcelona, pearl dive) are doing a lot of business. Others (Diplomat) just closed but then are trying to re-open for takeout.

The best ones are showing a lot of flexibility. Sweetgreen doing very well not that front. Diplomat, not so much.

Some national attention of "7 reasons"

https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-dc-restaurant-seven-reasons-delivery-takeout-2020-4

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/seek-and-ye-shall-find-plenty-of-excuses-to-explore-seven-reasons/2019/09/04/69d246e2-c454-11e9-b72f-b31dfaa77212_story.html?arc404=true



On the policy side, proving grant/loans based on retaining employees not working because of the threat of 50% capacity over the summer.


 
At 1:05 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

Thank you for those cites. Obviously I didn't know about it. Interesting that they've been able to do pretty well.

In writing about Eastern Market, I have been grappling with the delivery issue. Since I joined the advisory committee in 2007 I pushed it.

Now I would combine it with e-vehicle customer drives home with a certain purchase level.

The middleman issue with GrubHub etc. makes delivery a losing proposition for many.

2. Yep, Wharf and Navy Yard I had occasion to visit before. And yes, they likely will have serious issues.

Both places too influenced some of my writings about the disconnect between restaurants and retail. That restaurants no longer support complementary retail. E.g., it's particularly paltry in the Wharf. Not particularly great in Navy Yard. They have Harris-Teeter, a bike shop, and a couple of clothing/home stores.

The daytime workers aren't that interested in non-convenience retail. And there isn't a large enough base of area residents to support it either.

The Willow apparel/home store is an example. In their original store in Petworth, they have what I call the "brigade" of supercustomers who visit every couple weeks and buy stuff. That helps them succeed against an industry rule of thumb that apparel stores (selling new stuff as opposed to used/consignment) don't work in independent business districts unless there is a cluster of stores.

They don't have such a brigade in Navy Yard. And the residents of Greater Capitol Hill don't seem to have adopted Navy Yard as a retail destination independent of restaurants and baseball.

Definitely baseball patrons aren't interested in retail. Just food and drink.

3. PPP poorly constructed. You don't need to pay employees if you don't have business.

If they wanted it to function as an unemployment insurance doppelganger, they should have set it up that way.

Likely most businesses have other expenses greater than the 80% that is supposed to go to payroll.

e.g., some of the articles on this issue say that the average small business has average cash on hand to cover 27 days.

 
At 1:09 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

But before, I was impressed with how quickly the Wharf had been able to develop as a destination to the point that National Harbor and Alexandria were very much troubled by it.

And one day I checked it out (after doing what became the successful presentation to get the Eastern Market planning engagement), I couldn't believe how rocking the Wharf was especially with the Maine Avenue Seafood Market. Really fun.

The same day Alexandria had a beer fest on the waterfront. They were busy too. Plus being a key tourist destination.

Of course, now, that kind of business won't be coming back for a couple years.

 
At 1:54 PM, Anonymous charlie said...

Easy to forget at our age, but a major reason you have crowds is people looking for a lady/and or lad.

That part of human nature will continue.


A big part of the destination restaurant thing was to post pictures of it online, and that is likely to be less important in the near future as well.



 
At 3:44 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

yep. Definitely that's an issue with "happy hour" and bar scenes etc. at The Wharf or Navy Yard.

"Once upon a time there was a tavern..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3KEhWTnWvE

 
At 3:58 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

I meant "happy hour" generally.

... It's another element of aging out probably.

I've mentioned how taking a tour of the gateway and warehouse districts in Cleveland in 2002, the director of the revitalization organization mentioned how once people reach about 35, they tended to move out, as their lifestyle was less congruent. I've written about that in terms of Shaw/U Street too.

 
At 8:32 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

How Alinea wound up on so many global travelers' bucket lists

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/restaurants/how-alinea-wound-so-many-global-travelers-bucket-lists

2/25/24

When Choose Chicago, the local tourism agency, was polling visitors a decade ago or so on what attractions brought them to the city, many of the responses were predictable — the museums and the lakefront and Navy Pier and local sports teams all got mentioned. But for several years running, one attraction noted in the top five by Choose Chicago was a surprise: the Alinea restaurant in Lincoln Park, which boasts all of 70 seats and a sold-out dining room every night.

we always aimed for a national and international audience. When we opened, the restaurants with international reputations in and around Chicago were Charlie Trotter’s and Le Francais, but both had been around a long while and we had confidence from the start that we could do things different and better.
More than a year after we opened, Gourmet magazine named us the best restaurant in America, and after that the excitement kept building.

Having said all that, it’s clear that things are changing. People under the age of 45 who grew up on the internet aren’t likely to know Michelin and its restaurant history. There are no one or two restaurant arbiters anymore. Young people now get more news from Instagram than anywhere else. The single most important media for us has been the Netflix show "Chef’s Table." We were featured on that at the start of its second season six years ago, and that single episode has been viewed millions of times since around the world — in 120 countries in all. To this day we keep encountering people who saw that show and then put Alinea on their must-visit bucket list.

I’ve always argued that one city — even a big city like Chicago — can’t support a three-star Michelin restaurant by itself. It needs tourists. Where are people coming from at your restaurants?
We started recognizing where people were from by the area codes for their phones listed on their reservations. For travelers from overseas, we started giving them souvenir menus printed in their native languages as they departed. I once went into our Aviary lounge pre-COVID and noticed that nearly all the customers were speaking Mandarin that night. For some reason our restaurants are on the radar for Chinese tourists. So we started printing menus in Mandarin.
At Alinea itself, in summer months we estimate that 70% of our guests are from outside of Illinois and 30% are from outside the U.S.

The thing about restaurants today is that even if diners visit you once, you can’t count on them to come back. I studied credit card data from one American city to another and found that for visitors to any single restaurant, only 6% of them return within a year. The vast majority of people come and then you won’t see them again for at least several years. That tells you it’s a big world out there.

It’s true that we have a waitlist for a seat at Alinea each week of more than 1,000 names. Our menu prices ran $85 to $145 per person when we opened in 2005, and the average check per customer today is around $650, alcohol and service included.

 
At 10:03 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

How Alinea wound up on so many global travelers' bucket lists

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/restaurants/how-alinea-wound-so-many-global-travelers-bucket-lists

2/25/24

When Choose Chicago, the local tourism agency, was polling visitors a decade ago or so on what attractions brought them to the city, many of the responses were predictable — the museums and the lakefront and Navy Pier and local sports teams all got mentioned. But for several years running, one attraction noted in the top five by Choose Chicago was a surprise: the Alinea restaurant in Lincoln Park, which boasts all of 70 seats and a sold-out dining room every night.

we always aimed for a national and international audience. When we opened, the restaurants with international reputations in and around Chicago were Charlie Trotter’s and Le Francais, but both had been around a long while and we had confidence from the start that we could do things different and better.
More than a year after we opened, Gourmet magazine named us the best restaurant in America, and after that the excitement kept building.

Having said all that, it’s clear that things are changing. People under the age of 45 who grew up on the internet aren’t likely to know Michelin and its restaurant history. There are no one or two restaurant arbiters anymore. Young people now get more news from Instagram than anywhere else. The single most important media for us has been the Netflix show "Chef’s Table." We were featured on that at the start of its second season six years ago, and that single episode has been viewed millions of times since around the world — in 120 countries in all. To this day we keep encountering people who saw that show and then put Alinea on their must-visit bucket list.

I’ve always argued that one city — even a big city like Chicago — can’t support a three-star Michelin restaurant by itself. It needs tourists. Where are people coming from at your restaurants?
We started recognizing where people were from by the area codes for their phones listed on their reservations. For travelers from overseas, we started giving them souvenir menus printed in their native languages as they departed. I once went into our Aviary lounge pre-COVID and noticed that nearly all the customers were speaking Mandarin that night. For some reason our restaurants are on the radar for Chinese tourists. So we started printing menus in Mandarin.
At Alinea itself, in summer months we estimate that 70% of our guests are from outside of Illinois and 30% are from outside the U.S.

The thing about restaurants today is that even if diners visit you once, you can’t count on them to come back. I studied credit card data from one American city to another and found that for visitors to any single restaurant, only 6% of them return within a year. The vast majority of people come and then you won’t see them again for at least several years. That tells you it’s a big world out there.

It’s true that we have a waitlist for a seat at Alinea each week of more than 1,000 names. Our menu prices ran $85 to $145 per person when we opened in 2005, and the average check per customer today is around $650, alcohol and service included.

 
At 5:31 PM, Blogger Richard Layman said...

"The New Local"
WSJ, 1/27-28/24

About how some restauranteurs are refocusing on neighborhood restaurants.

 

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