Housing supply gap for owner occupied houses: 4 million, says Freddie Mac
Recent related entry:
Again, there's nothing particularly unique about the US "housing crisis." The problem comes down to not enough housing relative to demand, which is exacerbated by various factors including the fact that the most desirable places are already, for the most part, built out.
And that the preference for single family housing is increasingly difficult to satisfy in the core of metropolitan areas, especially center cities, which have been pretty much built out for decades:
- leading to calls for intensification and equally voluble opposition to such
- adding accessory dwelling units to single family houses ("DC and accessory dwelling units")
- and other forms of "missing middle housing"
- eliminating single family housing districts altogether by allowing duplexes and triplexes ("Massachusetts Triple Deckers as "Missing Middle Housing" -- triplexes", and
- building multiunit housing in areas that had mostly been single family.
The Wall Street Journal reported ("U.S. Housing Market Is Nearly 4 Million Homes Short of Buyer Demand") on a study ("One of the Most Important Challenges our Industry will Face: The Significant Shortage of Starter Homes") by the mortgage financing entity Freddie Mac estimating the gap in housing supply, which they discuss in two reports:
-- The Housing Supply Shortage: State of the States
-- The Major Challenge of Inadequate U.S. Housing Supply
From the second report:
... we discussed two main reasons for the lower levels of housing production (relative to population): increase in development costs and shortage of skilled labor.
Home building costs encompass the cost of land and regulatory costs. Since 2010, the cost of land has averaged about 23 percent of total home building expenses.1 But in some markets like San Jose, Santa Ana, Oakland, and Los Angeles, land can cost upward of 70 percent of the cost of building a home. Laws and regulations such as local zoning restrictions on lot sizes and building height and open space designations also increase the cost of building a home, in turn reducing the supply of new homes. Regulatory costs increased 29 percent between 2011 and 2016, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates.
The problem of "development costs" is somewhat subtle. First has to do with the predominate preference. People want single family houses, ideally centrally located.
Second, in the core of a region, those locations are already built out, usually in ways that didn't use land in efficient ways, at least in terms of having to house a population 1.5 times larger than when most of those places were developed.
Since there isn't much land available, except in commercial areas, and so when it is developed, it is developed primarily as multiunit, and outside of the core of major metropolitan areas, there is still reticence to live in such a housing type.
This produces sprawl, because to buy a single family house, for the most part it is only on the edges of a metropolitan area where the land costs are low enough to build such housing.
Depending on the market, like here in Salt Lake, there is a variant, of jamming in rowhouse type houses in on odd bits of land, often perpendicular to the street, in a way to maximize the number of units that can be produced ("Gentle Infill: Boomtowns Are Making Room for Skinny Homes, Granny Flats, and Other Affordable Housing," Lincoln Land Institute, Infill Design Toolkit, City of Portland).Labels: affordable housing, housing market, housing planning, housing policy
9 Comments:
TIME: The U.S. Is on the Verge of a Climate-Driven Housing Crisis.
https://time.com/5953380/climate-housing-crisis/
More granular on DC market:
https://www.homedemandindex.com/washington-dc/april-2021/
Lumber prices out of control. Just talked a GC -- his lumber costs on a new construction are 20K higher just on lumber.
trends are not looking good for multifamily.
https://www.outsideonline.com/2422318/tahoe-zoomtown-covid-migration
The Wall Street Journal: More Hispanic Americans Are Buying Homes.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-hispanic-americans-are-buying-homes-helping-stoke-hot-housing-market-11618916403?mod=flipboard
I didn't mention the increase in cost of materials _now_, plus labor costs and labor availability, making it even tougher. I should have.
The demand index site is pretty interesting. Thanks.
WRT the Tahoe example, that's a classic example of "reproduction of space" (what people too often call "gentrification" but might better be termed "production of space").
A few years ago at an Eastern Market meeting, one of the board members who is a real estate agent made a similar point, that now that urban living is a predominate trend, the kind of people moving to the city are different than the "urban pioneer" segment who moved to the city, committed to urban living when trends didn't favor it, had a willingness to volunteer time and energy to improve things, etc.
The "new people" just want things to work, want the amenities, aren't necessarily interested in contributing time and money to improving things, participating in community organizations, etc.
But the outsider thing, the "reproduction of space" is a universal concern I think.
Eg where I live now, there is a neighborhood "Sugarhouse" which is getting seriously intensified, tons of multiunit housing, and taller, up to 8 stories I think (at least 6 for sure) of multiunit.
Before my time apparently there was a lot more traditional historic building stock and way more independent businesses. That's diminished significantly. (Although some remnants on the streets perpendicular to the main arterial, 2100 South.)
I can understand their distress, although the urban planner in me says it's the right course.
Living in DC I was interested in learning the retail history etc. Here, like everywhere else, most of the significant independent retailers, such as department stores, are long gone.
That being said, I'm surprised at how much retail there is, and a fair amount of independents (boutiques and restaurants primarily).
Within a 5 mile radius there are more than 20 major grocery options, plus some small specialty options. The range we have available to us is far greater than what we had in DC (I do miss Aldi for certain things, although the Boise based Winco is the industry leader in wide range discount, even crushing Walmart, and the "day old" meats at Giant and Safeway, the coming of Lidl, and the "day old" vegetables at some of the Hispanic markets, plus easier access to Safeway's Signature Select frozen vegetables brand--their Asian mixed vegetables are killer, we have access to it via Lucky, which targets the Hispanic market, but the stores are 8-12 miles away).
And Salt Lake proper's population is less than 1/3 of DC. Although the county is about 1.2MM, and I suppose the areas close in, around Salt Lake City add maybe 100,000.
(Sugarhouse is just a couple miles away from us, but very different in the new core from the SFH neighborhoods to the west of 2100 South. It's probably the only area in the city outside of the core that is being developed to that level of intensity.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/19/opinion/biden-zoning-social-justice.html
"The ‘New Redlining’ Is Deciding Who Lives in Your Neighborhood"
"What you said" at least for NYC:
Patch.com: Rents For 1-Bedrooms Drop Near Most NYC Subway Stops: Study.
https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/rents-1-bedrooms-drop-near-most-nyc-subway-stops-study
Rents rising.
The Wall Street Journal: Apartment Rents Rise; Perks, Discounts Fade.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/apartment-rents-rise-perks-discounts-fade-11619256601
Fox Business: Out-of-town homebuyers with deep pockets edging out locals.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/out-of-town-homebuyers-local-market
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