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Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Why expertise doesn't matter in politics? | ideology, special interests

Robert Samuelson, the economics columnist for the Washington Post, wrote about the death of "policy entrepreneur" Alice Rivlin as an illustration of the failure of knowledge to drive policy ("America has an enduring cycle of disappointment").

(Separately, there is an op-ed in the New York Times, by principal investigators of a study that looked at whether or not state legislators were interested in systematic polling information about the opinions of their constituents on issues under consideration, "Politicians Don't Actually Care What Voters Want." They found little interest on the part of legislators and limited congruence between the electorate and elected officials.)

Samuelson suggests policy entrepreneurs are failing because:
(1) It may be that the problems they attacked were tougher than expected. Eliminating poverty, combating climate change and controlling health costs are hard tasks individually, let alone together.

(2) Elected politicians, who wielded the real power, found many of these ideas too unpopular. Take climate change. Almost everyone outside the Trump administration (it seems) is against it; but there's little enthusiasm for the actual policies -- higher fossil fuel prices or energy controls -- that might have some effect.

(3) The policy entrepreneurs may have discovered that they aren't as smart as they thought they were. Put differently, they may have exaggerated their understanding of the things they were trying to change.

Whatever the cause or causes, the historical reality is unforgiving. Policy entrepreneurship hasn't and won't disappear. But the hoped-for gains have been conspicuous by their absence. There is an enduring cycle of disappointment. Solutions are rarely equal to problems. It is a sobering legacy.
Yes the problems are hard. Yes ideas are unpopular, sometimes, but that is partly because of poorly dealing with them. And yes, people often have a limited sense of "the problem."

But I think he misses the point.

We've moved from a concept of "positivism" and the development of evidence-based policy and a respect for expertise (although to be fair, for centuries policy and practice has been more about reflecting "positions" on issues, not evidence) to a much more rigid focus on ideology and an ecosystem of special interests -- wealthy funders of organizations and media that support these positions -- that pushes ideologically-based positions regardless of evidence.

Policy and practice should be about achieving "optimality" based on expertise and knowledge. It should also be about "evidence" whenever it can be adequately collected. 

Yes sometimes I feel like the focus on evidence can be misguided even though absolutely, replication in other settings is essential. The issue of "what gets measured gets done" is problematic when you're not measuring the right thing or creating measures is time consuming and difficult. But still, so many programs continue to be developed irrespective of a consideration of past outcomes.

But like with "policy entrepreneurs" maybe not being so smart, a lot of it has to do with problem definition. Like with health care you need to approach the matter in tranches. Health insurance was set up to regularize income for hospitals, not to improve health outcomes. OTOH, the National Health Service in the UK was set up to improve health outcomes.

Separating the provision of health and wellness development, the ability to go to a doctor for simple things as well as for dealing with many diseases that are partially behavior related (heart attack, hypertension, obesity, diabetes, etc.), which are called chronic conditions, requires a different approach (these elements of the health system are called primary care) from how you deal with catastrophic and emergency care needs (cancer, heart attack, accidents, etc.) which are part of the secondary care system.

But by continuing to define "health care" through "health insurance," a fundamental rethinking isn't occurring.

So it is timely that the Center for American Progress has a presentation on Monday, about how this works at the state level.  From email:
Laboratories for Corruption
How Special Interests Are Driving Harmful State Policies


July 22, 2019, 12:00 p.m. - 1:30 p.m. ET

Center for American Progress
1333 H Street NW, 10th Floor
Washington, DC 20005

RSVP

Not in D.C.? Bookmark this link to watch the live webcast

Opening remarks:
Winnie Stachelberg, Executive Vice President, External Affairs

Featured panelists:
State Sen. Dinah Sykes, (D-KS)
Lisa Graves, President, Board of the Center for Media and Democracy; Co-Founder, Documented Investigations
Naomi Walker, Director, Economic Analysis and Research Network at the Economic Policy Institute
Danielle Root, Associate Director of Voting Rights for Democracy and Government, Center for American Progress

Moderator:
Sam Berger, Vice President of Democracy and Government Reform, Center for American Progress

Federalism encourages states to act as "laboratories of democracy," wherein states experiment with untested ideas and policies to gauge their effectiveness and potential value elsewhere. This mantle of states being laboratories for democracy can be used to promote policies that advance the public good. But states can also be used as a testing ground for policies that skew political and economic power toward corporations or billionaires and away from everyday Americans.

Many harmful state policies—such as irresponsible tax cuts, deregulation, and attacks on unions and essential workplace protections—are byproducts of corporate lobbying and conservative special interest groups whose main purpose is to help the rich and powerful exploit and manipulate the lawmaking process.

Please join the Center for American Progress for a discussion on how corporations and special interest groups promote state policies that make corporations and wealthy donors richer, at the public's expense. It will also examine how lawmakers backed by these groups further corrupt democratic processes to maintain power and keep harmful policies in place.

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4 Comments:

At 9:57 AM, Anonymous charlie said...

Spot on.

(Well except for the policy entrepreneur being dead. Speaking as someone who has worked for 10 years getting a bill through congress -- and we just got a major one in the house through -- this is the golden age of policy entrepreneurship. If you have a nice bio, a good face, and care more about twitter than anything else)

But yes, that is the crisis of our time --updating old structures that don't work anymore and were designed for different purposes.

I don't agree with the CAP analysis -- in the end they blame everything on the R because they are a partisan energy -- but take something like federal gas tax which has long served it purpose and isn't doing a good job moving us to a new future.

Or block grants -- which aren't going to the places that need them.

Or Fannie Mae and the 30 year mortgage.


No where I do think the P.E. is dead is market based solutions. And maybe the nudge!

 
At 2:24 PM, Anonymous Richard Layman said...

hmm. Market based solutions/Public private partnerships ought to be dead. Same with supply side economics and tax cuts. But they aren't.

Nudge shouldn't be dead.

====
I was thinking about this morning after reading David Brooks' column from Tuesday about "the problems with liberalism" that is a more strict definition.

And I was then thinking about this piece, and realized that the thing I was trying to say I wasn't clear, and you are basically saying the same thing with the gas tax or Fannie Mae and the 30 year mortgage ... and I have written about this many times.

It's about problem definition.

Too often, even policy entrepreneurs, on ideological reasons, have constrained problem definition.

e.g., this is my big problem with planning initiatives and what I call an artificially constrained scope of work, plus the fact that the process isn't designed to be iterative and to change and flow differently based on what is found out. It's why I like the design method better than a more traditional planning approach.

Anyway, I've written about how I came across a book in college, not for a class, and it really educated me about this, fully captured in the title _Change: Principles of Problem Formation and Problem Resolution_.

I was thinking about this vis a vis Brooks, who wrote that liberals aren't looking for revolutionary change.

I don't know if I try to produce revolutionary change, I think not. But I do try to create robust frameworks for practice, based on objective analysis.

Sadly, I don't see much interest in this at all.

Yes, there is the evaluation research profession which is hugely sophisticated, outspanning my knowledge easily.

But it doesn't really translate to policy, legislation, etc.

And the average city or county doesn't seem to care that much.

Suzanne always terms it in that they are just trying to get through the day.

... it's like getting a sustainability award for building Dunbar, when the reality is that Dunbar wasn't needed, that the students should have been redistributed to Cardozo, McKinley, and Eastern.

 
At 2:32 PM, Anonymous Richard Layman said...

Other examples:

- the federal government is spending too much damn money (and yes there are problems with entitlements) without acknowledging the continued decrease in tax rates and therefore tax revenues

- deriding California and its management without acknowledging the effect of Proposition 13 on local (and state) government revenues

- blaming legacy cities run by "the Democrats" for economic failure, when the economic failure has been driven by deindustrialization, business consolidation, and globalization, all of which local elected officials have no power over.

e.g., in the 1950s, Detroit had 13 auto plants, now they have two.

or at its peak, Flint had close to 80,000 people working for GM proper, now it's 10% of that number (although I think some might work in spun off plans, like Delta parts manufacturing, but if so it's still at most 25% of the peak number), etc.

===
wrt CAP, you're somewhat right, but at the same time, ALEC and Club for Growth puts so much energy into it, far more than the people trying to increase healthcare access or minimum wage, etc.

and when you combine that with how state legislative districts are designed to promote conservative representation, it is a problem.

====
but speaking of CAP, I think you can learn from everybody, e.g., I was at Politics & Prose last night and bought the last copy of _City Journal_ in the magazine section, and CJ is published by the Manhattan Institute.

It doesn't mean that they may not have f*ed positions. (E.g., in CJ a big article about how blue states cost a lot in taxes and have bad services. But you know, I'd probably rather like in New York than most of the cities in Kentucky or Kansas, etc.)

 
At 2:33 PM, Anonymous Richard Layman said...

like = live

 

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