Scooters, private equity, micromobility and transit

 (g.d.  Blogger keeps destroying the post, although I think it's the connection.)

Micromobility is the fancy term now in transit, looking at how bikes, bike share, electric bikes, scooters and even skateboards complement traditional transit, especially in terms of what is called "the first mile/last mile" problem of getting people from their point of origin to the transit station and from the transit station to their final destination.

Private equity doesn't do stuff "out of goodness" but to make a profit, and quickly--often much faster than it is possible for a developing business to do.  Lots of cool more public good type "businesses" have been destroyed by private equity seeking a quick return or to cash out.

We've already determined that in the US, because of population density, depopulation of cities, and sprawl, that transit isn't profitable.  That's why it's been taken over by the public sector, except in a few rare situations (Asian countries have high population density and transit agencies are more active in high value real estate development so their situation is different).

Isla Vista, California.

So I wasn't surprised to see some articles about the bankruptcy of Bird (Superpedestrian), the major player in the electric scooter space ("E-scooter companies are going bankrupt. That should alarm you even if you hate them," Fast Company, "Bird's bankruptcy is bad news for scooter commuters," Washington Post).  

The reason first is that transit isn't profitable, especially quickly.  

But the second is that they significantly misunderstood the market.  They thought it was transit, it was recreational.  Bird launched in Santa Monica, a tourist-beach town, and the scooter users were recreational.

-- "What the e-scooter industry hasn't figured out about Santa Monica: It's recreation not transportation," 2018

Note, ride hailing is a similar issue.  Trips cost more than transit, lead to more congestion as they replace transit trips with car trips, and were significantly subsidized by venture capital ("Farewell, Millennial Lifestyle Subsidy," New York Times).

Then there is the nuisance issue.  Many scooter users aren't respectful of the public space and abandon the vehicles at the end of their trip, on sidewalks, in intersections, etc.  From the FC article:

But those who care about the future of urban life should not indulge in scooter schadenfreude. For all the annoyance they inspire, shared e-scooters have been valuable additions to American neighborhoods, frequently replacing car trips that pose a much greater threat to street safety and clean air. Cities—whose leaders have contributed to e-scooters’ current predicament—would be worse without them.

Regardless, I think the premise is wrong.  At least in the US, scooter trips don't replace car trips, but transit trips, and they are a lot more expensive than a transit trip.  (This was true of initial research on bike share too, but there are advantages to reducing train congestion and getting closer to your final destination.)

It wasn't the kind of business that could scale up. Especially to make lots of profit.  See the flameout of Chinese bike share and the fact that with a couple exceptions, bike share in the US is not capable of making money.

That doesn't mean bike share isn't valuable, just that it needs to be conceived of in terms of first mile/last mile linked trips with transit.  

In some other countries, the transit agency provides free access to bike share to start or finish a trip, out of access and equity issues.  In the US, I think only Columbia Transit in South Carolina does this.

FWIW, I have no problem with scooters and bike share being integrated into transit systems, as a way to improve customer experience.

-- "The problem when you define every outcome as a success, you don't learn, and therefore failure is more likely: bike share in Seattle and Los Angeles as examples," 2016

But it's good at some things, not others. It's personal transit, not mass transit.  And it works best in areas with a lot of stations.  In terms of off loading parking, security, and maintenance, it's awesome.