Creating risks, the DC plane crash: risk analysis and investigation

Wreckage is seen in the Potomac River near Ronald Reagan National Airport in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. Petty Officer 2nd Class Taylor Bacon, U.S. Coast Guard via AP.

The tragic crash resulting in 67 deaths seems preordained ("Boats return to the Potomac River for D.C plane crash recovery and investigation," Philadelphia Inquirer).  

For years, it's been written that because of restrictions on airspace use around the White House, planes fly to and from National Airport through extremely narrow corridors and tight elevations ("Pilots have long worried about DC’s complex airspace contributing to a catastrophe," AP, note: it requires going into a good library articles database to get older links).

But I don't recall these articles discussing airplanes also having to negotiate airspace with military helicopters on training missions from various bases along the Potomac River, like Fort Belvoir, the duty station for the helicopter involved in the crash.

A Reddit thread shared an interesting article, "Why You’ve Never Been In A Plane Crash" (Asterisk Magazine) about airplane crash investigation not being focused on "blame" as much as the process/system that likely generated the crash, with a focus on structural change.

It discusses a case in Los Angeles, and how a series of near misses similar to the final crash bred complacency.  The New York Times article, "Washington Crash Renews Concerns About Air Safety Lapses" sounds like it could have been pulled from the files on the LA crash, detailing ongoing process issues at National Airport, which, scarily, appear to be more common across the country.  From the article:

Clues emerging from the moments before the deadly collision Wednesday night between an Army helicopter and an American Airlines passenger jet suggest that multiple layers of the country’s aviation safety apparatus failed, according to flight recordings, a preliminary internal report from the Federal Aviation Administration, interviews with current and former air traffic controllers and others briefed on the matter.

The helicopter flew outside its approved flight path. The American Airlines pilots most likely did not see the helicopter close by as they made a turn toward the runway. And the air traffic controller, who was juggling two jobs at the same time, was unable to keep the helicopter and the plane separated.

WMATA Fort Totten crash, CBC photo.

The same kind of complacency at the airport ("Near-misses at Washington airport worried pilots well before fatal crash," Reuters) seems comparable to WMATA's Metrorail which experienced a number of signals failures induced near misses before the 2009 crash that killed 9 ("WMATA circuit failure," 2009).

Plus things could have been even more discombobulated because of the Trump Administration's call for air traffic controllers to leave government service ("Air traffic controllers were initially offered buyouts and told to consider leaving government," AP).  OTOH, Trump blamed DEI and the Biden Administration ("Trump was challenged after blaming DEI for the DC plane crash. Here’s what he said," AP).

Recreation planning and financing failure in Philadelphia: 11 of 12 public swimming pools have closed

Because of the provision of parks and recreation facilities by a variety of government entities as well as the private sector, and the same with public transportation, parking, cultural resources and the arts ("What would be a "Transformational Projects Action Plan" for DC's cultural ecosystem," "Downtown Edmonton cultural facilities development as an example of "Transformational Projects Action Planning""), libraries ("Neighborhood libraries as nodes in a neighborhood and city-wide network of cultural assets"), etc., I have become enamored with the idea that "master planning" by government agencies should cover the entire sector of responsibility, including other government agencies as well as private sector entities.

In DC, this matters because the National Park Service provides 80% of the parks facilities in the city, complemented by some other government agencies (e.g., the USDA's National Arboretum, the Capitol Botanic Garden, etc.  But also because various private and nonprofit organizations provide access to facilities too.  It's complicated by the fact that the city parks department doesn't want to take on new responsibilities, so it outsources new facilities to nonprofits.

(And because in DC area transit there are competing interests and agencies and they don't work together very well. "The answer is: Create a single multi-state/regional multi-modal transit planning, management, and operations authority association.")

But also schools.  Schools have playgrounds and other facilities which may or may not be open to the public.  In Baltimore County, for close to 70 years there has been an MOU between the Recreation Department and the Schools, where Recreation invests in school facilities like gyms and auditoriums, creating larger facilities that also serve the general public.  A few other places do this, but not at the scale of Baltimore County.

In thinking about what I write about:  A third is best practice.  A third is gaps and insights--I joke I might be a bad planner but I am great at gap analysis.  (This past few weeks I have been on fire in identifying and writing about gaps in public and private writings.)  And the last third is about worst practice and system and leadership failure.  

The Philadelphia Inquirer has an article on the latter, "Philly’s indoor pools have become ‘a travesty’ after decades of disrepair and neglect," about how 11 of 12 public indoor pools are closed because of facility failure--from 2004 to 2019.  

I think this is complicated by the fact that some are in schools, and some are Department of Recreation.  And by the financial problems of the Philadelphia government, which affect the school system in many ways, and the parks system too, although it has the benefit of being able to raise money philanthropically.

Although the city is still committed to public outdoor pools.  It has more than 60.  But even they are closed before the end of August, and "summer heat" tends to persist long into September.

Philadelphia is not the only city with this problem.  Ten or so years ago, Baltimore closed most of its recreation centers because of lack of funds, hoping underfunded community organizations could step in and fill the breach.

See "The real lesson from Flint Michigan is about municipal finance."

The PI article discusses this in terms of (1) equity, because some private indoor pool facilities are still open, for a fee, (2) how knowing how to swim reduces the likelihood of drowning by 88%, (3) the value to young people from participating in athletics, (4) job opportunities for people who learn how to lifeguard, etc.

One issue is money.  But I think another is failure to coordinate between the Schools and Recreation agencies, and not having an MOU like Baltimore County.  Also in not funding "civic engagement" and capacity building to help third party nonprofits raise money and support for indoor swimming.

There is a Friends of Philly Aquatics, but obviously they aren't a significant player.  

The PI also reported on the lack of recreation facilities for the disabled, illustrating that these planning and facility operation failures go beyond indoor swimming ("Will the closing of Philadelphia’s only rec center for people with disabilities lead to lasting inclusion? ").

It's amazing to me that a city can actively destroy their public assets like these with few repercussions.  (Then again corporations do it too.  Eg Safeway destroyed supermarket chains it bought in Chicago, Philadelphia, and Texas.  AT&T destroyed the media assets of Time Warner.  Etc.)

In my naivete, I believe that robust master planning is one of the solutions.  But vision is one thing, although sure, it's mostly lacking.  Money is another.

Vaccine for me (my country only, the US), not for thee: President Trump edition

Northshore School District, which includes Bothell High School north of Seattle, announced it was closing its entire district for up to two weeks.Credit...Lindsey Wasson/Reuters

At some point I'll write about the coronavirus and the implications it raises concerning universal health coverage, public health, public administration, and government competence in the face of an anti-government neoliberal philosophy.

I am flabbergasted that President Trump is trying to buy a German pharmaceutical research firm working on a coronavirus vaccine with the proviso that any vaccine produced would only be for the United States ("Germany tries to halt U.S. interest in firm working on coronavirus vaccine," Reuters; "U.S. Offered ‘Large Sum’ to German Company for Access to Coronavirus Vaccine Research, German Officials Say," New York Times).

It reminds me of the movie, "Head of State" where Chris Rock runs for president (not a great movie).  His opponent is known for the line:

God Bless America.  And no place else.



This from an administration that failed to create a working lab test ("CDC coronavirus testing failure is a national outrage," San Jose Mercury News) and has vaccine research facilities that appear unable to address the current contagion ("Federal vaccine development sites ill-suited to counter covid-19 epidemic," Washington Post).

I'm surprised that Jared Kushner ("Infighting, missteps and a son-in-law hungry for results: Inside the Trump administration’s troubled coronavirus response," Washington Post) didn't reach out to Elizabeth Holmes  ("Elizabeth Holmes' peril: Is Theranos founder facing ruin?," SJMN) for help on the testing side!

Suzanne and I are pretty different.  She has a sour  view of the community side of things, and generally doesn't believe that in bad times people will come together.  I am more optimistic, believing in the potential for community and connection even if it happens so rarely, and our elected officials aren't particularly great when it comes to vision and striving for better.

But in the vein of Suzanne, movies like "Right At Your Door" and "Contagion" challenged my thinking.  Both movies show outcomes and community and herd behavior that are pretty terrifying.

I was joking with her earlier today that the cable channels should be showing these movies on repeat.  Then again, people don't need to get ideas.

It's bad enough that supermarket shelves of toilet paper, rice and beans, and water are stripped bare.  What's wrong with tap water and do you really not have enough toilet paper stocked up otherwise?

PBS has provided open access to the American Experience episode on the "Spanish Flu" epidemic of 1918.  I guess one of the only reasons I know about it is because fiction writer John O'Hara wrote a bunch of stories about it, he being the son of a doctor active during the epidemic and a few decades ago I read a bunch of his books.

Right now, Covid19 disproportionately impacts the elderly.  What happened with "Spanish flu" is that it mutated between the first wave and the second, and became particularly virulent for young adults.

This NYT piece allows you to model various scenarios in dealing with Covid19.

-- "Opinion | How Much Worse the Coronavirus Could Get, in Charts"

Given that our health system has limited slack capacity in hospital beds generally and ICU beds specifically, a large marginal increase in demand in periods of already peak demand will swamp the system. That's what's happening in Italy ("Coronavirus: Italy records 368 new COVID-19 deaths - largest number in a day," SkyNews). To extrapolate, Italy's population is about 20% of the US.