(Even) More about urban commercial district revitalization

There is still lots of angst on the Columbia Heights e-list about the DC/USA development, and its focus on discount stores of various types, including two discount clothing outlets, Ross and Marshalls.

This is something I wrote earlier today.

Well, it's true that retailer and developer perceptions of a market lag demographic changes. This occurs in part because residential demographic changes tend to not be immediately reflected in the shopper mix in extant shopping districts. As an example, note that DC spent a bunch of money on a plan for H St. NE (written up in the Post a couple weeks ago, but the plan was completed in 2003), funded a Main St. program, over the decades gave tens of millions of dollars to a Community Development Corporation, is about to spend $30 million on a streetscape improvement, experienced a $20 million restoration of the Atlas Theater (including some city money) and will install a streetcar system.

But the first significant new retail entrant, in 2004, was Family Dollar.

Had Joe Englert not seen opportunity in the area, and began assembling property and opening night life places, H St. would still be thought of in terms of the Family Dollar demographic. Englert's efforts likely accelerate change on H St. NE by 5-8 years.

Look at the demographic sheet for Columbia Heights that is distributed in the 2007 Neighborhood Retail Opportunities book published by www.wdcep.com and then you'll know what information the developers receive from the city (and generally, because it's not like they don't have access to this kind of information independently) and why you're getting Ross Dress for Less and not Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, let alone American Eagle Outfitters.

Pages 32 and 33 in this document list the demographics for the Columbia Heights neighborhood.

It was trying to figure out why H St. NE was the way it was in 1999 (and before, including its heyday) that put me on the path of urban revitalization as a profession. And yes, I don't have all the answers. I keep learning every day.

Lately, I have been thinking and considering much more the temporal aspects of change in neighborhoods and commercial districts. WRT commercial districts specifically, it takes a long long time, and its especially difficult when there isn't consensus within a neighborhood about what to do and what to focus on. It also tends to be true that there isn't consensus within the community and the community organizations seemingly tasked to work on the issues. Unfortunately, I would argue that this is a problem in most neighborhoods in the city. Even Capitol Hill and Georgetown, which because of touristifcation is no longer neighborhood serving, and Friendship Heights, which is a regional shopping center not intended to serve only residents.

(See past blog entries "Speaking of touristification," and "Is there a link between historic designation and chaining up of retail in neighborhood commercial districts?.")

And another thing, most neighborhoods in the city do not have the population density and financial wherewithal to support the kind of retail and services that people say they want, so the commercial districts have to be attractive to outsiders as well, but because the approval and finding process is neighborhood- centric, there can be a major disconnect over this reality.

E.g., for even the "Columbia Heights" Target to succeed it needs to draw on at least 270,000 additional people outside of Columbia Heights. Because a store like this needs to draw on a retail trade area of at least 300,000 people.

To best understand the requirements of successful neighborhood commercial districts, I always recommend Steve Belmont's Cities in Full which is a kind of updating of Death and Life of Great American Cities. He specifically discusses the link between population density and urban form and successful neighborhoods, commerce, commercial districts, and transit.