Is Navy Captain Brett Crozier the US version of China's Dr. Li Wenliang?
Captain Brett Crozier helmed the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier with about 4,000 personnel. Currently docked in Guam, the ship is being ravaged by the coronavirus. He sent a letter to his command, stating forcefully that personnel needed to be off-boarded and quarantined. The letter was leaked to the press. Probably that spurred the Navy to act, but at the same time Crozier was relieved of command ("Navy relieves captain who raised alarm about coronavirus," NBC News) because:
... he sent the letter over "non-secure unclassified email" to a "broad array of people" rather than up the chain of command.It seems similar to the case of Dr. Li Wenliang in Wuhan, who alerted colleagues to the existence of what is now called Covid-19. He was questioned by the police and ordered to retract his statements.
"I have no doubt in my mind that Captain Crozier did what he thought was in the best interest of the safety and well-being of his crew," Modly said. "Unfortunately, it did the opposite. It unnecessarily raised the alarm of the families of our sailors and Marines with no plans to address those concerns."
Modly insisted the that decision was his alone. He praised Crozier but said he had concluded that the captain "allowed the complexity of the challenge of the COVID breakout on the ship to overwhelm his ability to act professionally."
He later died from the virus. Afterwards the state asserted he was a martyr, while on social media, Chinese people said he was a hero yes, but a victim of the state ("Chinese doctor who tried to raise alarm on coronavirus in Wuhan dies on ‘front line’ of medical fight," Washington Post; "Li Wenliang’s death is a new crisis for China’s rulers," Economist).
An article in The Nation avers "How Trump Is Going to Get Away With a Pandemic."
Given the Administration's propensity to lie and all the problems required to manage the president ("Trump has handled the coronavirus the way he handles everything: Like a toddler," Washington Post), this seems pretty likely.
Labels: information dissemination, organizational behavior, pandemic/public health, public information
posted by Richard Layman @ 6:18 PM&Permanent Link
13 Comments:
4000 men on a ship; how many are over 40? maybe 100? Over 65? Over 70?
How many are overweight and have metabolic syndrome? 5? 10?
How many asthmatics in the US navy?
It would not be fun to have a 2-3 day fever as a sailor in a bunk. Given what we know, you can safely say deaths on that ship will be less than 5.
Honestly I think the the problem is must people haven't gotten the flu since they were kids. After 30 it hits you hard. I had it in 2002, took me flat out in bed for week, about 3 weeks before I was "normal" and honestly 2 months before I have all my energy up.
I'm pretty sure I came down with CV on the 13th. Both GF and myself were madly achey, no fever, no cough, but I develop some mild noise while breathing and chest pain -- like someone pressing on me hard. Was over in a week.
It's a strange disease that hits certain risks groups very hard, but we know exactly what those risk groups are and they aren't any on that ship.
When you do paratroop training, the entire drop is calculated by how many injuries /death is acceptable. 5% is a good starting point.
Right now, yep. The "young" aren't that affected. Likely that's the case for the crew. But like with Spanish flu, it could mutate and change.
"Younger" people are dying and not all are "already compromised." Although that's the case in Utah. So far, the young who die have preexisting conditions.
Get tested. Maybe your blood could be the answer like the character played by Anna Camp on "True Blood."
We haven't experienced those kinds of symptoms. Yes, flu sucks when you're older. In college, I used to always wonder wtf Doans pills ads were about -- "for the aches and pains of cold and fever." Never had them.
Til once when I was a senior, and every muscle seemed to be a distinct pain center.
I imagine if you've had those kinds of symptoms without the ones we think of as associated with flu (which are like a cold in terms of congestion, coughing, chills, etc.) you probably had it.
maybe 5 years ago, I had a cold then the flu sequentially. Each took about 2 weeks to get over.
We had plans to go to Savannah with Suzanne's parents, and we did, although we were just recovering.
On the way down we stayed in a motel, with clean sheets and everything and it was divine.
I said then, that if we got sick like that again, we should just go check into a decent enough motel...
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I reached out to Simon Anholt about my new definition for Brand America under Trump and he liked it a lot.
Charlie is a first-class troll. Everyday on GGW. Only cares about the markets and his porfolio. Anybody in DC who makes less than $100k (he's said it many times) is of little value to the economy, and neither are our parents and grandparents now- so they are merely in the way and a drag on the economy- current right-wing talking points. People who make money without working are dependent on the labor of those who do. So that class is antsy and naturally wants to get this over with so things for them can get back to (their) normal.
Also on the EU situation; we're looking at the breakup of the euro but also the entire EU situation.
https://www.ft.com/content/f21cf708-759e-11ea-ad98-044200cb277f
I'd say NATO is also dead. Do you think you can convince the Germans that we'd send American boys to die for them if we won't send them face masks?
Hell, we can't even convince Taiwan to send up face masks.
These things are far larger than old people dying.
https://www.theballengerreport.com/remembering-the-1957-asian-flu-epidemic/
RE: Antibodies. IF you want to scare yourself read up on antibody dependent enhancement. Tried to get a test in DC, doctor would not recommend it given limited symptoms and capacity. DC public heath never returned my call. Antibody tests may be available in 2-3 weeks but accuracy rates are variable on those (45 to 95 percent accurate).
My mother, who was a virologist, so I literally grew up with this stuff, has been making the case for antibody testing so you can see how many people have it. CDC will start but they are a month late and not targeting the entire country.
Yep, I found out that there isn't a good antibody test yet, but that there is work on developing it and it could be ready in a few weeks or months. Then again, like you say, the capacity to test is another issue.
Also that hydrochloroquine is an immunosuppresant !!!!!!!!! So if it actually works on covid19, it's only after you are exhibiting serious symptoms--hospitalized.
It's not a prophylactic, it's likely not worth prescribing in most cases, only for the most serious reactions (5% of all infected, which results in ICU hospitalization).
WRT the EU, NATO, etc., I read an article in Atlantic about "maybe Trump is right about China" and in many ways of course he is.
China has used international organizations to push its agenda without being interested in changing itself internally.
Meanwhile most people arguing for engagement figured not unlike the hopes that Trump would change and become "presidential" once he was elected, that they would change over time.
They've proven they aren't much interested. They are getting a lot tougher (e.g., IP and surveillance, among others, the various Phillipines sea issues, etc.).
So as Jean Luc Picard would say "the line must be drawn [here]."
That being said, it's a lot better to not go it alone when trying to challenge a hegemon.
It'd be easier to counter China with a TPP alliance, etc., although it's a lot harder for the countries within Asia to distance because China is big, there, and close.
I guess the way to think about it is like the global airlines alliances.
It's easier to connect and work with others and succeed, than to try to do it all yourself. Even Emirates is doing that.
That being said, the lead hegemons have to give stuff up, to build their networks.
With the EU, as long as Germany isn't willing to give up some of its power and riches as the lead hegemon, ultimately it's not going to work.
NATO, maybe the US piece is no longer functional, but if they are concerned about Russia, they're going to have to step up.
And theoretically, the US ought to understand that if there was another war in Europe, things would be very f*ed. (Don't know if you watched the "World On Fire" premiere last night?) And it would affect the US.
So the need for NATO is there. But it won't work if you have a US president that cozies up to Russia instead of challenges them when appropriate.
I mean, Jesus, Trump cozies up to Russia and Saudi Arabia, and they are aiming to destroy the fracking industry. If those are your "friends"?
Anon -- I've never met charlie, don't know his real name, etc. But I find his analyses and insights to be highly useful and challenging and a help to better hone my thinking.
That doesn't mean I agree with him 100%.
fwiw, he mentioned in a comment long before I thought about it the inequalities being made front and center about relatively low paid wage workers in supermarkets etc. serving the people who can afford to be sequestered.
hahah not going to argue chloroquine here as well! Been following that hard for 3 weeks along with remedsvir.
https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/amp/cambridge-virologist-explains-what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-covid-19-9104220/
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/06/1586186884000/Poland-vs-Sweden/
wrt trust, interesting article from the NYT European soccer correspondent about what's up there wrt financial givebacks by teams, players.
It's all about trust. Which is the deal with Brand America, NATO, EU, dealing with China, etc.
"But the root of the problem is not the surfeit of money; that is merely a function of the real issue, which is the dearth of trust. The players do not trust that the clubs are not trying to make them shoulder the burden. The clubs do not trust that the players' agents -- and by extension the players -- will act honorably, in the common good.
And just as important, the clubs do not trust one another ... They believe that their rivals will, in some way, attempt to use any situation to gain a competitive edge. They are not well suited to collective action. ...
... the leagues do not trust each other; some of them do not trust their clubs. This is the ultimate consequence of the undiluted neoliberal thinking that has permeated soccer: the idea that all are out for themselves."
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in any case, it's a lot easier to work together when the enemy is very clear, or when things aren't too bad.
It's a lot harder in times of trial, and when you don't have a common set of goals and principles.
e.g., in college, there had been a coalition between black students and the progressives. But it turned out it was one way. The groups were united on affirmative action, but when the progressive groups came out against an honor code because of restrictions on speech, the coalition broke up because the black groups favored such over hate crime and racist language assertions.
Without making the concerns of each group clear from the outset, or to work out the discords, this became problematic.
cf. The Houston Astros.
another topic but:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-06/key-food-prices-are-surging-after-virus-upends-supply-chains?srnd=premium
thanks for all the cites. Yes, I can see that happening with food.
In line with your previous comment about restaurants doing takeout to burn off supplies on hand, some institutional food service operators are doing the same thing, breaking down quantities to consumer size. I'm thinking of doing one here, just so I can get a decent amount of yeast. Their prices are all over the place, some good, some not but right now there are no good sources for yeast or flour. (Sugar is starting to come back at regular stores.)
DK if you are familiar with the term grocerant, where supermarkets are adding prepared foods. An e-letter I get talked about restaumarkets, as a bunch of restaurants are selling grocery items as an income generator right now. (I have written about that for years and years... Via Umbria in Georgetown is a great example. There is a similar kind of place by the Maine Ave. Seafood Market on the Wharf. But others have failed. There was one on 8th St. in Penn Quarter. Others. But I guess at least one of the Black restaurants does this with seafood.)
I went to a Hispanic market yesterday. It's comparable to Megamart in the DC (which has a bunch of stores and owns PanAm on 14th St. NW too).
Except for dried black beans and yeast, they had just about everything. Rice in various sizes, beans and lentils -- of various sizes dried and canned, and FLOUR. I didn't buy any 'cause I had already used up most of my cycle capacity, but now I know I can get some there. Or still, buy it from the institutional option. But they had a 10 kg bag size even. Granted they weren't Pillsbury type brands.
But then I went to the nearby bigger Harmons (Harmons is an awesome independent that in the scheme of the industry is very unusual in that they are ok with a range of store sizes), and they didn't have small packets of yeast, but they did have a 1 lb. size (which I never looked for before) which was 2/3 the cost of what the institutional option was charging. And its the same type as the little packets.
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I was expecting we'd be dissed on grocery shopping compared to DC but not the case. Winco is a massive discount supermarket, so we don't miss out on what Aldi offers that much (certain things yes, Aldi is the best, plus their various specials -- Winco will never sell a container of mushrooms for 68 cents like Aldi used to).
But we have Sprouts and Harmon's a great itty bitty place like Glen's (he knows the owner of Glen's. And yes WF and TJs.
Plus a big Kroger banner, Smiths, and other independents owned by the regional business cooperative that supplies Harmons too.
And we have a mini Harmons and two of the AFS-owned stores all within a half mile to a mile.
In normal circumstances I'd be focusing on price and going around to get the various best prices, but that's not how we're shopping now...
And the stores here don't do discounting for sell by meats and stuff the way that Safeway and Giant do. And except for Harmons, which is more expensive, most of the supermarket breads, and especially the bagels, aren't that great. Giant does much better on breads.
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