Capital shallowing: the effect of disinvestment on government functioning
Is a term that I am sad to say that I haven't come across. (Although I have seen the term "capital deepening" applied to the increased income of neighborhoods as demographics change and the neighborhood becomes more attractive at the scale of the metropolitan residential landscape.)
It has so much explanatory power.
It's used in a Financial Times article about the National Health Service in Britain, how with decreased funding and investment, the amount of capital to support each worker, and each facility, declines in systematic ways that often reduce the ability to provide proper care ("NHS capital investment cuts leave England’s hospitals crumbling").
The article argues that while the facilities are declining and the waitlists lengthening, care is still okay.
In the basement pharmacy at St Mary’s Hospital in London, part of the world-renowned Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, senior pharmacist Michele Garwood has placed plastic trays beneath the ceiling in an attempt to protect her stock of medicines from regular flooding.
Elsewhere, on Albert ward, one of five lavatories has been out of use for three months after a hole opened up in the floor, exposing it to the car park below, and rotted floor joists in patient bays, temporarily taped over, represent a constant trip hazard.
We “still provide the best care we can” but some patients are so horrified by their surroundings that they discharge themselves, said matron Marta Calvo Hernandez. St Mary’s is one example of how a longstanding lack of capital spending is being felt across the NHS. The service is struggling with an accumulated maintenance backlog estimated to be worth more than £10bn, the highest since records began.
Stephen Rocks, an economist with the Health Foundation, a research organisation, said there had been “a very sustained under-investment in capital” over the austerity years of the 2010s, which had “left the NHS with insufficient capital investment to deliver the care patients need”.
Rocks suggested this was part of the reason that a growth in staffing levels in the health service did not seem to have translated into a corresponding increase in activity. “We’ve seen a ‘capital shallowing’, with less capital per worker, and that does have a very direct read across to productivity,” he said.
As a term, apparently it was coined in development economics, making the point that as countries grow in population, there is less money invested in per capita ("Population Pressures, Saving, and Investment in the Third World: Some Puzzles," Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1988).
I wish I had known this concept earlier, because it explains points I've made in various areas.
First, the impact of neoliberal induced disinvestment in government--the US could "slide" for a long time with denigration and disinvestment in government because in the decades before it overinvested.
But the failures with FEMA and disaster response after Hurricane Katrina and under Trump with Puerto Rico and Houston are a good example. But I don't know if the failure of the Army Corps of Engineers and levees was about capital shallowing or just politics, failure to adequately address risk, budget shortfalls, etc.
And the failure of the Trump Administration to properly respond to covid. And the serious problems of the US public health infrastructure to respond to covid after decades of declining budgets ("COVID-19 and Underinvestment in the Public Health Infrastructure of the United States," Milbank Quarterly, 2020).
Of course, the Conservative Party austerity agenda in the UK for the last ten years has had the same kind of debilitating effect ("Austerity urbanism in England: the 'regressive redistribution' of local government services and the impact on the poor and marginalised," Environment and Planning A, 2017). With covid, policing, transit, health care as mentioned above, care for the aging, defunding of local government, parks, libraries, etc.
Second, with the tax cutting fervor in growing places like Utah--"let's share the benefits of growth"--when growth imposes more costs, not fewer, and by cutting taxes you have less revenue to invest, or a capital shallowing ("A Robust Economy, State of Utah press release).
A third example would be the impact on local governments of declining budgets. This has been particularly pronounced in Toronto, where the previous mayor refused to raise taxes beyond the inflation rate, even though costs increased greater, with serious negative impact on the quality of municipal services ("Brutal performance art criticism of Toronto's Mayor, John Tory, and his "austerity" agenda").
It can be difficult to separate the effects of neoliberalism, say with the water quality failures in the UK ("Water companies are playing dirty over sewage. That’s why 20 million of us are taking them to court" Guardian) from capital shallowing--the budget of the UK Department of Environment is only £11.47 million FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTRY--and capital shallowing.
I think they are mutually reinforcing, especially when it comes to "advanced economies" as opposed to developing economies for which the concept was coined.
Labels: anti-government philosophy, economics, governance, investment concept, neoliberalism, provision of public services, public finance and spending, public investment, return on investment
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/19/jeremy-hunt-autumn-statement-tax-cuts-growth
Decline in public investment as a percentage of GDP in Britain.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/03/chaos-in-skies-crumbling-concrete-in-schools-grim-symptoms-british-disease
Chaos in our skies, crumbling concrete in our schools: grim symptoms of a British disease
These disparate events have common roots: they underline the lack of system resilience of so much British infrastructure and the unwillingness to plan for unforseen contingencies, so that reactions to unexpected failures are ad hoc and on the hoof. And when things do go wrong, the processes for redress and compensation are feeble – in these cases, organised around minimising a duty of care to schoolchildren and parents, and to airlines and passengers. There is a complete lack of accountability. Be sure the same is true for so much else.
... Between 1949 and 1978, according to an important paper by Jagjit Chadha and Issam Samiri for the Productivity Institute, net public sector investment averaged 4.5% of GDP. It then fell precipitately in the Thatcher years to zero, before climbing under New Labour from those depths to nearly 3% of GDP in 2010. Austerity prompted another steep fall, since when it has bumped along at about 2% of GDP.
Overall, the rate of public sector investment from 1979 to 2021 has run at less than half the rate of the previous 30 postwar years. Cumulatively (even allowing for privatisation), that means the evisceration of our public services – from schools that are unusable to weak backup systems at Nats.
https://www.productivity.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/WP030-Macroeconomic-Perspectives-FINAL-131222.pdf
... In France, arch-representative of the economic EU corpse to which Brexiters claim we were shackled, public investment has run at levels half as high as ours again for the past 20 years. As a result, the country works – from its high-speed train network to mandatory enrolment of three-year-olds in nursery schools. A generous welfare system and sector-wide collective bargaining arrangements mean it has much less poverty than Britain – and the investment in research and development is paying off too, with France registering twice as many patents as we manage. It has more companies in the global top 100 than any other European country.
Taxation is not a ‘burden’. It’s Brexit that weighs Britain down
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/28/taxation-is-not-a-burden-its-brexit-that-weighs-britain-down
The real cost of local authority budget cuts
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/05/the-real-cost-of-local-authority-budget-cuts
Austerity is not merely a fiscal equation on a balance sheet, but something that causes pain and distress to millions of vulnerable people, and diminishes the quality of everyone’s community life. The real cost of this central government butchery can be measured in the absence of social care for the elderly and the most vulnerable; the closure of children’s centres, swimming pools and libraries; a deterioration in the maintenance of recreational spaces such as parks and playgrounds; and the loss of financial support for activities that support and strengthen local communities. This tattered inventory is the true indictment of this miserly and neglectful government, and should have been splattered all over the city of Manchester this week.
HS2, Raac, potholes: the symptoms of a lack of investment are everywhere
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/01/hs2-raac-potholes-the-symptoms-of-a-lack-of-investment-are-everywhere
First, the UK state simply invests too little: the average OECD advanced economy has invested 50% more (relative to GDP) than the UK this century. The results are everywhere, from Raac-infested schools to potholed roads. Our politicians have strong incentives to cut public investment for tomorrow (it’s easier than firing nurses or raising taxes today). And our fiscal rules focus narrowly on net debt, ignoring the value of assets on the public sector balance sheet.
Second, public investment is too volatile. Departments’ investment spending changes are six times more volatile than day-to-day spending, preventing long-term planning and guaranteeing poor value for money. When we do want to invest, trying to increase spending quickly means paying through the nose or failing to get the money spent (the government fails to spend £1 in every £6 of investment planned).
Then there are the immediate cuts. Public investment levels now are higher than we have seen for some time. But the government has pencilled in significant cuts (from 2.5% of GDP to 2.2% in 2027-28). That is mad when Britain needs to be investing more, not less, not least for the net zero transition.
Lastly, how we invest is plagued with problems. HS2 spells out the madness of opaque political decision-taking, stop-start project approvals and chronic cost overruns.
https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/cutting-the-cuts/
UK economy in growth ‘doom loop’ after decades of underinvestment
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/20/uk-economy-in-growth-doom-loop-after-decades-of-underinvestment
How austerity (and ideology) broke Britain
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/10/how-austerity-and-ideology-broke-britain
George Osborne, the former Tory chancellor and architect of austerity, used to accuse his Labour predecessors of “failing to mend the roof while the sun was shining”. But after 13 years of the cost-cutting he initiated, much of the school estate is in danger of total collapse. Former civil servants said the fault lay with politicians who wanted to save money rather than pay for repairs. As policy disasters go, it was up there with the worst.
... “The cuts to local government have been huge. But it isn’t just about the amount of funding they have cut nationally – it is that they have redistributed it from areas that need it to places they want to have it. That isn’t levelling up. The Tories have levelled down our communities.”
The Tory mission has failed: British people don’t want a smaller state
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/06/tory-small-state-mission-has-failed-british-conservatives
There is no need to rehash old economic arguments about optimal fiscal pathways out of the financial crisis to recognise that George Osborne’s 2010 strategy was primarily political. The goal was to incriminate Labour profligacy as the reason why belts needed tightening, thereby insulating David Cameron’s government from blame for the ensuing pain. The long-held Conservative ideological conviction that the state should be smaller was rebranded (with help from the Liberal Democrats) as a mission of civic responsibility.
Where do we find the £100bn needed to fix Britain? Margaret Hodge has the answer
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/30/britain-margaret-hodge-commons-tories-economy-labour
Britain is broken. What will fix it? Lots and lots of money
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/22/britain-money-bank-bailouts-state-failure
The Guardian view on a dismal inheritance: the UK does not need another bout of austerity
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/04/the-guardian-view-on-a-dismal-inheritance-the-uk-does-not-need-another-bout-of-austerity
[T]he Resolution Foundation thinktank [...] points out that the creative industries accounted for 6% of the UK economy last year, and have grown faster than the UK economy overall since 2011.
The report, Ending Stagnation, says the last 15 years of low growth and high inequality have seen a living standards gap worth £8,300 open up between typical households in Britain and those in France, Germany and the Netherlands. It suggests fixing this by growing the UK economy through its service sector – and the work of Smith’s “grave” lawyers and “frivolous” musicians – to pay for higher investment and higher benefits.
https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/ending-stagnation/
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