Backwardness of transportation and land use planning: National Harbor, Prince George's County, Maryland | Why isn't high capacity transit access required from the outset?

In 2007, I took a class on transportation and land use planning, and my term paper laid out an agenda for linking transportation and land use planning within DC proper, although the concepts were extendable to the metropolitan area.

Some blog entries reflect the various conclusions in the paper, including whether or not DC should move to "free transit," which is relevant again as DC Council is proposing $100/month in free transit benefits to all residents ("D.C. Council Ponders Bill to Give Residents $100 Monthly to Ride Metro," Washington Informer).

-- "Comments on Proposed EYA Development at Takoma Metro Station," 2006
-- "Not being able to build your way out of congestion," 2007
-- "A 2008 Transit/Transportation Planning Wish List for DC," 2008 (updated 2015, part 1, part 2)
-- "Is making surface transit free the best transit investment DC can make?," 2016

Predating the paper, the 2006 entry discusses the "Transit First" agenda laid out in the San Francisco City Charter, which prioritizes sustainable mobility, while the 2007 entry discusses "Transit First" as well as how Utrecht, The Netherlands links land use approvals to the capacity of the transportation system to accommodate the number of trips generated ("Utrecht: 'ABC' Planning as a planning instrument in urban transport policy"). These provide the foundation for the paper's argument.

PG: no substantive link between transportation and land use planning, especially for big projects.  Unlike what they do in Utrecht, it is amazing how in Prince George's County in particular, they approve large scale developments -- FedEx Stadium, Konterra, and the National Harbor development on the Potomac River alongside an outlet shopping center and the MGM Grand Casino -- WITHOUT ANY REQUIREMENTS FOR HIGH CAPACITY TRANSIT SERVICE.  Even though they claim to be proponents of what is called "transit oriented development."

Konterra is still a long way from substantive development, but it's completely car dependent.  

FedEx Stadium is about 1.5 miles from the Largo Town Center Metrorail Station, and National Harbor has zero substantive transit connections--it was hard to even get bus transit.

It's why I argue that Prince George's County planners don't really understand what transit oriented development and transit centricity even mean:

-- "The future of mixed use development/urbanization: Part 3, Prince George's County, where's the there?," 2011
-- "A recommended new planning direction for Prince George's County," 2011
-- "Another lesson that Prince George's County has a three to five year window to reposition based on visionary transportation planning," 2011
-- "Frustration #3: the talk about transit oriented development and Prince George's County," 2013
-- "Prince George's County still doesn't get "transit oriented development" and walkable communities: Greenbelt edition," 2012

National Harbor.  And wrt National Harbor specifically, there are limited bus connections only, which came with a struggle ("Eight years and one casino later, a bus line from Alexandria to National Harbor," Post, 2016), even though the Sierra Club Metro DC Chapter advocated for a circumferential transit line connecting all the legs of the Metrorail system c. 2000.  This proposal included a station at National Harbor.

Flickr photo link

This comes up because the Washington Post has an article, "In growing National Harbor, eyes are once again set on a future Metro station," about the possibility of Metrorail expansion, the long discussed separated blue line, that would provide service both to Georgetown and National Harbor as a kind of inner circumferential line for the subway system. 

WMATA's proposed separated blue line makes it sort of circular,

Purple Line.  FWIW, the first time I ever heard of the Purple Line was in a cover story in the Washington City Paper in December 1987.  And now, "only" 39 years later, the first leg will be operational ("Maryland approves revised contracts for Purple Line, now set to open in 2026," NPR).

Ironically, when the first column for what became the Dr. Gridlock feature in the Washington Post was written in 1989 or 1990, I sent a long letter to the writer about how he was advocating for car commuters, not for transportation, and that by not advocating for transit expansion then, it would take decades to happen.  

This Purple Line was originally conceptualized as heavy rail but is now being constructed--a portion anyway--as light rail.

Separated Blue line/Separated Silver Line.  The separated blue line was a WMATA concept from 2001, but after a recession around 2003, Metrorail junked expansion planning entirely, devolving authority for expansion to the separate jurisdictions, and it fired most of its long range engineering and construction staff.  The original blue line proposal called for service to Georgetown, Union Station and H Street NE.  

But the key element was the additional platforms at Rosslyn Station, as the present setup is a key chokepoint in the system, made only worse by the addition of the Silver Line.

The only expansion plan underway at the time that continued was the Silver Line, by the State of Virginia.  The second phase will open this year -- 20+ years later ("Silver Line opening pushed back again, MWAA says, as new issue arises. But hiring is underway," Washington Business Journal).

Flickr link.

Graphic: Washington Post, 2001

"Crowds Could Derail Decades of Progress," by Lyndsay Layton

(The online article never included the graphic.)

The separated blue line concept died for the most part, except as mentioned in the Arlington County Master Transportation Plan.  Instead of advocating for it, DC shifted into streetcar planning, which since the original process, has been pretty much abandoned to one line on H Street NE, ending at Union Station.

A proposed streetcar network for DC.

Flickr photo by Mr. T in DC.

Starting in 2006, I wrote tons about the concept of a separated blue line, including the missed opportunity by DC to use the creation of the Silver Line as a way to create that line.

-- "The "Downtown" Circulator and Rosslyn, Virginia," 2006
-- "Blinking on urban design means you limit your chance for success," 2006
-- "Winners and losers with the Dulles subway project," 2007
-- "Silver Line Metro expansion a classic example of the need to have true regional transportation planning," 2011
-- "Ultimately, WMATA blue line riders have been dissed by the State of Virginia, not WMATA," 2013
-- "The Silver Line WMATA story that WJLA-TV missed," 2014
-- "If DC had visionary elected officials and planners it could use the new WMATA "BOS" study to push through the development of a separated Silver Line in DC (and Northern Virginia)," 2019 recap

Although now I think it could be a separated Silver Line and the Blue Line, in Virginia could have its own expansion plan.

-- "A "Transformational Projects Action Plan" for the Metrorail Blue Line," 2020

Separately Paul Meissner and I created a "fantasy map" for Metrorail expansion, which did include Metrorail service to National Harbor, but should have included other suggestions for Blue Line extension in Virginia.

Conceptual Future integrated rail transit service network 

for the Washington DC National Capitol Region.

Design by Paul Meissner

Concept by Paul Meissner and Richard Layman

Note that this map has a southwestern leg of the Green Line from Suitland, serving National Harbor as the terminus.  This map didn't call for a completion of the Purple Line circumferential line.  

Now, I'd probably drop the southwestern Green Line leg in favor of an extension of the Purple Line from New Carrollton to Alexandria, with service to National Harbor, albeit at a distance of 7 miles from the Suitland Metrorail station.

The new separated blue line proposal.  So far, I am not enamored with the Metrorail blue line proposal, although it does provide:

• a new junction at Rosslyn, service to Georgetown
• presumably a connection to a Mount Vernon Triangle Maglev station if it's ever built ("DC, Transformational Projects Action Planning, and the Baltimore-Washington Maglev project," 2021)
• an additional line connection to Union Station, which needs additional transit capacity and connections to serve the proposed expanded station
• to Navy Yard, which is a single line station serving the Washington Nationals Baseball Stadium which lacks the capacity to adequately serve special events ("Baseball World Series in DC #2: Eleven urban planning lessons from the Washington Nationals stadium," 2019)
• the addition of a station at Buzzard Point, which would serve Audi Field, the DC United soccer stadium ("Baseball World Series in DC #3: Five lessons for transit," 2019) providing enhanced special event service, although Audi Field is about one half mile in west of Navy Yard Station and east of Waterfront Station.

I'd rather see the Separated Silver Line, and extension of service east of Union Station rather than southward from Union Station to National Harbor, although the issue of enhanced special event coverage to Nationals Stadium and Audi Field is a plus.

To me, planning an extension of the Purple Line from New Carrollton to Alexandria makes more sense, based on the likelihood of ridership demand to National Harbor, which can't be particularly high.

According to the Post article:

The route would add 180,000 new weekday trips, according to pre-pandemic Metro estimates made when the existing rail system was serving four times the passengers it does now. The route would bring rail service to lower-income communities in the District and Prince George’s, as well as to areas where development is booming, such as Buzzard Point and National Harbor. ...

Proponents of the proposed National Harbor line take a much longer-term view. It’s the preferred of six options the Metro board is considering to deal with crowded stations on the Blue, Orange and Silver lines. Trains and stations on the three lines, which share one set of tracks through much of the District, frequently exceeded capacity before the pandemic during peak hours, according to Metro. 

The Blue Line route would connect an area of Prince George’s with few transit options — limited to a handful of bus routes — to the greater Washington area. It also would create an alternative to car travel in an area that suffers from frequent traffic congestion. 

“It would be a tremendous amount of relief if folks were able to depend on mass transit,” said Malcolm Augustine, a former member of Metro’s board who represented Prince George’s and is now a state senator. 

The down side? It would come with a hefty price tag, costing between $20 billion and $25 billion to build and between $175 million and $200 million annually to operate, according to a Metro report last fall. It’s not clear how the extension would be funded.

Bang for the buck.  The thing is that extending the Blue or Silver Line eastward into DC and even Prince George's County would serve areas that are more intensely developed or could be, thereby generating more ridership and greater likelihood of transit oriented development.  Metrorail service on H Street and potentially up Bladensburg Road would have huge impacts, greater than what is likely south of Buzzard Point (Audi Field).

Transit planning and transit operations need to be separated.  It's also an illustration of the failure to not have integrated transportation and land use planning in the Washington Metropolitan Area.  I argue for the creation of a German style transport association, which integrates transit planning and operations regardless of mode.

-- "The answer is: Create a single multi-state/regional multi-modal transit planning, management, and operations authority association" (2017) 
-- "One big idea: Getting MARC and Metrorail to integrate fares, stations, and marketing systems, using London Overground as an example" (2015)
-- "Branding's (NOT) all you need for transit" (2018)
-- "Verkehrsverbund: The evolution and spread of fully integrated regional public transport in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland," Ralph Buehler, John Pucher & Oliver Dümmler, International Journal of Sustainable Transportation (2018)

WMATA is the heavy rail (and regional bus) operator and by default it is the lead transit planner, even though it has to make recommendations designed to assuage all three jurisdictions rather than optimality, and often makes decisions that are budget constrained.  

WMATA is also biased.  It doesn't see itself as a "transit operator" but as the Metrorail operator.  It wasn't interested in taking on light rail, which is why the Purple Line is being developed under the authority of the Maryland Mass Transit Administration.  It doesn't care about railroad passenger service, which is why 

Instead, there should be a regional transportation association, planning should be separated from operations, and decisions should be made in terms of the best mode, regardeless of who operates it.

What should happen.

1.  WMATA should study a separated blue line and a separated silver line, with broader cost-benefit calculations including land use intensification.  Obviously new platforms at Rosslyn are a top priority.

So is connection to Georgetown, redundancy in the center city, and an additional connection to Union Station, to support growth plans for the station.

-- "More on Redundancy, engineered resilience, and subway systems: Metrorail failures will increase without adding capacity in the core" (2016)

At the same time, DC needs to consider the height limit restrictions (2010 blog entry, "More discussion of the height limit #2: Without adding high capacity transit service, there should be no increase in allowable heights," 2012) because taller development would help pay for the cost of the subway extension.

And DC needs to decide if it prefers eastward expansion of the Silver/Blue Lines, or better connections to Nationals Stadium and Audi Field, which then means extension southward into Prince George's County and to National Harbor.

2.  Immediately, the metropolitan area and Maryland MTA should begin studying the extension of the Purple Line from New Carrollton to Alexandria, with the aim of implementing it so much faster than the current process.

A caveat concerning the pandemic's effect on transit ("After Massive Transit Losses during the Pandemic, Agencies Are Planning a Comeback," Urban Institute, "Steep ridership losses will force changes to Metro service after pandemic, transit leaders say," Washington Post).  We don't know if Downtown DC (and Downtowns elsewhere) is dead forever, that the pandemic ushers in a world where people no longer go work in offices and clusters.  

I don't think that's the case, but I can't be absolutely sure.  If that's the case, high capacity transit is no longer necessary, at least from the suburban to city standpoint.

Then it becomes more of a place enhancement and intensifier, and still makes sense, but even then only if people are still working "downtown."